Japan's ruling party is certain to lose a majority in the lower house, broadcaster says

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba' s ruling coalition is certain to lose a majority in the 465-seat lower house in a key parliamentary election Sunday, Japan's NHK public television said. The results reflect voters' outrage over the governing party's extensive financial scandals.

By MARI YAMAGUCHI

The Associated Press
October 27, 2024 at 4:06PM

TOKYO — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba' s ruling coalition is certain to lose a majority in the 465-seat lower house in a key parliamentary election Sunday, Japan's NHK public television said. The results reflect voters' outrage over the governing party's extensive financial scandals.

Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition with junior partner Komeito were certain to lose a majority 233 seats in the lower house, the more powerful of Japan's two-chamber parliament, NHK said.

Falling short of a majority does not mean a change of government, but the results would make it difficult for Ishiba to get his party's policies through parliament, and he may need to find a third coalition partner.

Ishiba, who took office on Oct. 1, immediately ordered the election in hopes of shoring up support after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, failed to address public outrage over the LDP's actions.

''The results so far have been extremely severe, and we take them very seriously," Ishiba told NHK. ''I believe the voters are telling us to reflect more and become a party that lives up to their expectations."

If the majority is lost, Ishiba said, the LDP will still lead a ruling coalition and tackle key policies, compile a planned supplementary budget and pursue political reform.

He indicated that the LDP is open to cooperating with opposition groups if that suits the public's expectations.

A total of 1,344 candidates, including a record 314 women, are running for office.

NHK exit polls earlier indicated the LDP was expected to win between 153 and 219 seats, down sharply from the comfortable majority of 247 it held previously. Komeito was expected to win 21 to 35 seats.

As of early Monday, LDP won 173 seats and Komei 22 for a total of 195 seats for the ruling coalition, while the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan secured 137 seats, NHK said.

Ishiba, in his final speeches Saturday in Tokyo, apologized over his party's mishandling of funds and said only the LDP's ruling coalition can responsibly run Japan with its experience and dependable policies.

Once a popular politician known for criticism of even his own party's policies, Ishiba has also seen support for his weeks-old Cabinet plunge.

The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is led by centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda, who briefly served as prime minister during the LDP's 2009-2012 descent from power.

Noda's party was expected to make significant gains, with exit polls suggesting a huge increase to as many as 191 seats from 98. Noda said Sunday's election is a rare chance for a change of government, though his party has trouble finding other opposition groups with which to cooperate.

At a downtown Tokyo polling station, a number of voters said they had considered the corruption scandal and economic measures in deciding how to vote. But analysts said Ishiba's LDP was expected to remain the top party in Japan's parliament as voters were skeptical about the opposition's ability and inexperience.

''The public's criticisms against the slush funds scandal has intensified, and it won't go away easily,'' said Izuru Makihara, a University of Tokyo professor of politics and public policy. ''There is a growing sense of fairness, and people are rejecting privileges for politicians.'' Makihara suggested Ishiba needs bold political reform measures to regain public trust.

Ishiba pledged to revitalize the rural economy, address Japan's falling birth rate and bolster defense. But his Cabinet has familiar faces, with only two women, and was seen as alienating members of the faction led by late premier Shinzo Abe. Ishiba quickly retreated from earlier support for a dual surname option for married couples and legalizing same-sex marriage, an apparent compromise to the party's influential ultra-conservatives.

His popularity fell because of ''the gap in what the public expected him to be as prime minister versus the reality of what he brought as prime minister,'' said Rintaro Nishimura, a political analyst at The Asia Group.

The LDP was also being tested Sunday for its ability to break from the legacy of Abe, whose policies focused on security, trade and industry but largely ignored equality and diversity, and its nearly eight-year-long rule led to the corruption, experts say.

There could be regrouping attempts among opposition parties to decide whether to cooperate among themselves or join the ruling coalition, political watchers said.

Potential new partners for the LDP include the Democratic Party of the People, a breakaway group from the CPDJ, which calls for lower taxes, and the conservative Japan Innovation Party, though both are currently rejecting any possible coalition with the LDP.

The LDP is less cohesive than previously and could enter the era of short-lived prime ministers. Ishiba is expected to last at least until the ruling bloc approves key budget plans at the end of December.

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AP video journalist Mayuko Ono contributed to this report.

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MARI YAMAGUCHI

The Associated Press