Jerry Zgoda's preview of Tuesday's NBA draft lottery

Wolves' odds for repeat are slim, but not everyone is sold on LSU's Simmons as the man.

May 14, 2016 at 11:11PM
LSU's Ben Simmons is the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NBA draft.
LSU's Ben Simmons is the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. (Randy Johnson — AP/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

When: Tuesday, before the Eastern Conference finals' Game 1. Television coverage starts at 7 p.m.

Where: New York City. • TV: ESPN

What: The NBA's annual game of chance that determines order of selection for 14 nonplayoff teams in the June 23 draft. Philadelphia's league-worst 10-72 record gives it 250 of 1,000 lottery combinations — that's a 25 percent chance — to win the No. 1 overall pick. The lottery chooses the draft's first three picks, and picks 4-14 go by order of regular-season records, worst teams first.

Wolves' representative: Newly named NBA Rookie of the Year Karl-Anthony Towns will be the franchise's face before the television cameras when the lottery results are revealed.

Timberwolves' chances: They have a 36 percent chance of selecting sixth overall, a 26 percent chance of selecting fifth, an 8.8 percent chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick for the second consecutive year and a 29.1 percent chance of getting a top-three pick.

Last year: With team owner Glen Taylor representing his team for the first time, the Wolves turned their lottery-best, 25 percent chance into the No. 1 overall pick and selected Towns.

The top prospects

LSU freshman forward Ben Simmons: An Australian who packs a PG's passing in a PF's body and has been compared by optimistic scouts to Magic Johnson. He was considered the consensus No. 1 when the season started and still probably is, but LSU's failure to make the tournament and Simmons' sometimes indifferent play could make it much more of a discussion.

Duke freshman forward Brandon Ingram: A long, athletic wing who could vault over Simmons and go No. 1 if the right team wins the lottery. He'd give the Timberwolves the perimeter shooting they lack, but he also weighs about 200 pounds at 6-9 and will get pushed around plenty in the NBA until he grows bigger and stronger.

European forward Dragan Bender: He's not — repeat, NOT — 2015 lottery pick Kristaps Porzingis. Both are 7-feet-plus. Both are European. Bender is big and gifted, but NBA scouts have seen a lot less of him at Europe's highest level to draw a conclusion than they did with Porzingis, whom New York wisely drafted fourth overall last summer.

Kentucky freshman guard Jamal Murray: According to his college coach, John Calipari, he has the talent to be chosen No. 1. At 6-5, he's strong, is projected to play both guard positions and would give the Wolves the three-point shooting they lack. A teammate of Wolves star Andrew Wiggins on Canada's national team, he's also barely 19.

Oklahoma senior guard Buddy Hield: He probably would have been a top-three pick had the draft been held during March's NCAA tournament. He's smart and a great shooter expected to be able to step straight into the NBA and score. He's also 22 and somewhat undersized for a shooting guard.

Providence junior guard Kris Dunn: He is big (6-4 plus), long and athletic for a point guard comparatively old (22) as well in a process that values potential and "upside." Yes, the Wolves already have Ricky Rubio there, but Dunn could be the proverbial best player available if they draft fifth or sixth.

Others: Marquette forward Henry Ellenson, California forward Jaylen Brown, Washington forward Marquese Chriss, Michigan State swingman Denzel Valentine.


about the writer

about the writer

Jerry Zgoda

Reporter

Jerry Zgoda covers Minnesota United FC and Major League Soccer for the Star Tribune.

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