Souhan: Carlos Correa eyes a path toward the Hall of Fame

FORT MYERS, FLA. — I asked Carlos Correa if he had thought about what it will take for him to make the baseball Hall of Fame.

What a stupid question.

Like asking Gordon Ramsay if he thought about food.

Correa analyzes every aspect of his game, training and nutrition. He even tracks Twins prospects. He’s the Twins’ CEO shortstop.

So, Wednesday afternoon, after Correa had finished his daily routine at the Twins’ spring training complex. I asked the stupid question.

He didn’t need to do any research before offering this response:

“I wrestle with it in terms of how long I want to play, I guess,” he said. “I also want to spend a lot of quality time with my kids [who will be 6 and 7 when his guaranteed contract expires].

“So, this contract, the guaranteed part, will take you four more years, and then the options will take me to eight more years. If you look at the Hall of Fame guys, 65 WAR is what gets you in. I’m at 40-some right now.

“So five good seasons at my average WAR, which is six, would take me over 65. But if I play all eight seasons, depending on my performance, that could take me up to the 70s, which will make a good case for it, right?”

He’s not wrong.

His career WAR — wins above replacement player, an overarching measure of a player’s value — is 44.4. The last shortstop to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, Derek Jeter, had a career WAR of 71.3. The previous shortstop to make it, Alan Trammell, was at 70.6.

Barry Larkin’s was 70.5, Ozzie’s Smith’s 76.9. Joe Cronin made it in with a WAR of 64.7.

The lowest WAR for a Hall of Fame shortstop is Phil Rizzuto’s 42.2, but his reputation was burnished by his role on championship Yankees teams, and he played when few shortstops were offensive powerhouses.

Correa is a brilliant fielder. The variables that will affect his candidacy are health, longevity and whether baseball writers, 10 or 15 years from now, will punish him for being part of an Astros team that cheated.

(My guess, as a former Hall of Fame voter, is that few will do so.)

“I’m not chasing it, in terms of sacrificing my family for it,” Correa said. ”So whenever I feel the time is right to hang it up so I can raise my children and be a good man in the future, that’s what I’ll do. If it’s a choice between a couple more WAR points or my family, I will always pick my family."

Correa’s best WAR in an individual season was 7.2 in 2021, the year before he signed with the Twins. As a Twin, his WARs have been 5.3, 1.4 and 3.7.

He was the rookie of the year in 2015, and has made the All-Star team twice — once as an Astro and once as a Twin. He has won one Gold Glove, and finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2021.

Analytics seem to have replaced award accumulation as the ultimate measure of the modern player, so WAR might be all that matters in the end. Correa has had four seasons with a WAR over 5.0.

Can he elevate his status by returning to the form he showed in 2021 and 2022, now that he’s 30?

The Twins just saw Joe Mauer, their former No. 1 overall pick, inducted. Correa was also a No. 1 overall pick, just ahead of Twins center fielder Byron Buxton in 2012.

This is certain: Correa will know where he stands, and what his chances are, when he becomes eligible for the Hall. He can’t help but embrace analytics.

“That’s the way the game is moving,” he said. “Everything is about the advanced stats now. So if you don’t update your life with the new things that are happening, you’re gonna get left behind.”