Biden’s debate performance was so bad, it may have put Minnesota up for grabs this election

President Joe Biden’s first debate performance of 2024 was so dismal it may have put Minnesota back in play.

Minnesota hasn’t handed a win to a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972. But after Biden turned up at the first presidential debate looking addled and aged, election oddsmakers tracked a slight tilt Trumpward.

Last week, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia moved Minnesota out of the “Likely Democratic” category and into “Leans Democratic,” and moved Michigan from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up.” On Wednesday, analysts at the Cook Political Report reclassified Minnesota from a likely Democratic win to merely leaning. Post-debate poll data is scant, but America saw what it saw on debate night, and Minnesota is one of six states where Cook estimates former President Donald Trump likely picked up an advantage.

Look no further than Minnesota’s swing congressional districts to find Democrats who have crunched those numbers already.

In the Third District, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips made an unpopular, career-ending run for president against Biden. In the Second District, U.S. Rep. Angie Craig became the first House Democrat from a toss-up district to call on the president to end his campaign and make way for “a new generation of leaders.”

“The trend that we’re seeing nationally is that the Democrats who are Biden skeptics at this moment are disproportionately those who have been avid consumers of polling data in swing districts and are talking to a broad spectrum of voters to win their races — and have deep concerns about what Biden remaining on the ticket could do to their chances of holding on,” David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, said in a Thursday conference call with journalists.

Craig — who weathered two consecutive elections that were almost derailed by third-party challengers, both living and deceased — would be keenly aware of what could happen if disillusioned Democratic voters drift away, Wasserman said.

Biden carried Minnesota by 52% in 2020, to Trump’s 45%. The 2016 presidential race was much closer in Minnesota. Hillary Clinton bested Trump 46.4% to 44.9%.

But Biden’s approval numbers were low before his shambling debate performance in late June.

“As such, it’s hard to justify keeping states that Biden carried by less than eight points, like Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd District, in Likely Democrat. They now move to Lean Democrat,” wrote Amy Walter, Cook’s editor-in-chief.

Voters don’t seem to be flocking to Trump — whose own debate performance veered from addled to untruthful in the extreme. But Walter noted that Biden was trailing Trump by 1 percentage point in a RealClearPolitics national poll on June 27. On Wednesday, Trump was ahead by 3 percentage points.

“Biden was losing pre-debate,” Walter wrote. “Now, he’s losing by a bit more.”

In light of the new polling data, there are now just three states in Cook’s toss-up column — too close to call for either candidate: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Cook has moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Republican.”

Walter noted that Trump is just as unpopular as Biden. Never-Trump voters may be turning away from Biden, but they don’t seem to be turning to Trump.

Then again, she said, “Trump doesn’t need to win over disappointed or disillusioned anti-Trump voters; he just needs them to stay home.”