Kentucky Derby: Star Tribune handicapper Jay Lietzau picks the winner, bets the race, analyzes the field

The most talented three-year-old thoroughbreds in the world will congregate under the Twin Spires on Saturday for the 150th consecutive year to determine the fastest of their generation. The 20 horse field is a tough puzzle to solve but if you can find where all the pieces fit, you could be substantially rewarded.

Current betting odds and post positions

How to watch: TV coverage begins at 1:30 on NBC and Peacock Premium. The race is scheduled to start at 5:57 p.m.

Canterbury Park Derby Party information

1. DORNOCH (Post Position 1) will try to replicate what his big brother (Mage) did last year to become the first full siblings to win the Run for the Roses.

2. FIERCENESS (17) is attempting to win from the 17 post position which would be the first time the 17 saddle cloth has ever been in the winner circle following the Derby. Currently, that post position is zero-for-44.

3. FOREVER YOUNG (11) might be the biggest international threat. The entrant from Japan is a perfect five-for-five and has already banked over $2 million dollars.

4. JUST STEEL (6) starts for legendary trainer, 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Kentucky Derby four times with his last win coming 25 years ago with Charismatic.

5. WEST SARATOGA (13) is an underdog that is easy to cheer for, as he was purchased at auction for the bargain price of $11.000 and is trained by the small barn of Larry Demeritte.

Most likely winner: FIERCENESS (17) was the champion two-year-old and comes into the Derby following a dominant 13-length win in the Florida Derby. He has tactical speed, which will help him manage his outside post position. Starts for the powerful Todd Pletcher barn, and his speed figures tower over his competition. If he runs his race, the others are running for second. However, it should be noted that he has two subpar efforts in his past performances. Does that make him a vulnerable favorite?

Value contenders: DORNOCH (1) has good early speed, which should minimize the negative impact of the inside draw. Posted an impressive speed figure as a two-year-old while re-rallying late to defeat SIERRA LEONE (2). Should be prominent early, and we know he’s bred to get the distance. JUST A TOUCH (8) has a similar résumé to 2023 winner Mage. Brad Cox is one of the top trainers in the game and might have this lightly raced colt peaking at the right time. His sire won the Triple Crown and won the Derby in his fourth start. Déjà vu all over again? FOREVER YOUNG (11) has done nothing wrong, winning his first five starts and only being tested in one of those. The Japanese runners have been winning major races throughout the world and there is no doubt they’d love to win this one.

Hot long shots: MYSTIK DAN (3) loves the slop; in fact, his mother was a mudder. If the track condition comes up muddy or sloppy, this runner has a chance to hit the board at a big price. TRACK PHANTOM (12) danced every dance this winter at the Fair Grounds, winning two of their Kentucky Derby prep races. Has regressed in his last two starts but adds blinkers for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen and has dangerous speed. RESILIENCE (19) is bred to run all day and easily captured the Wood Memorial in his last start. Love his running style in this size field but will need to take another step forward to be competitive. SOCIETY MAN (20) has a grinding running style that can hit the board in the Derby if the speed stops in front of him. Frankie Dettori in the saddle for the first time is a positive.

$20 exacta

1st: Fierceness (17). 2nd: Dornoch (1), Just a Touch (8), Forever Young (11) ($60)

$5 exacta

1st: Fierceness (17). 2nd: Track Phantom (12), Resilience (19) ($10)

$0.50 trifecta

1st: Dornoch (1), Just a Touch (8), Forever Young (11), Fierceness (17). 2nd: Dornoch (1), Just a Touch (8), Forever Young (11), Fierceness (17) 3rd: Dornoch (1), Just a Touch (8), Forever Young (11), Track Phantom (12), Fierceness (17), Resilience (19), Society Man (20) ($30)