RandBall: The NFL’s interception leader is playing QB Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium

The narrative of Sam Darnold vs. Kirk Cousins will be done and then overdone this week leading to Sunday’s game between the Vikings and Falcons, so let me be early and brief with it:

The thing that was obvious about Darnold from Week 1 with the Vikings is that he has a huge arm and makes more “wow” throws than Cousins. That figured to translate into more risk-reward than the Vikings were used to over the past six seasons with Cousins as Darnold trusted his strong arm to wedge balls into tight and sometimes contested spaces.

And indeed, there were those among us who worried that Darnold might be crashing after the Vikings barely survived his three-interception game a few weeks ago against Jacksonville.

What is less obvious because it is not baked into the narrative of both players, though, is this: Cousins has actually been the far riskier passer this year without the rewards, something Andrew Krammer and I talked about on Tuesday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

It is Cousins who leads the NFL in both interceptions (13) and fumbles (12) heading into this matchup, while Darnold has eight fewer combined (10 picks, seven fumbles).

Four of those Cousins interceptions came last week in a performance so bad that some questioned his job status before coach Raheem Morris reaffirmed that he will start against his former team. Darnold, meanwhile, was interception-free for his third straight game, a span during which he has thrown six touchdown passes.

Pro Football Focus credits Darnold with 25 “big-time throws,” third in the league, while Cousins has just 10. They tag Cousins with a league-high 21 “turnover-worthy plays,” while Darnold has 18 (tied for second-most, but still three fewer than Cousins). Not surprisingly as a result, PFF grades Darnold as the NFL’s ninth-best QB this year; Cousins is No. 30, one spot ahead of new Vikings practice squad QB Daniel Jones.

Some of this could be determined by the play styles of the offenses they are now running, and certainly Darnold has been fortunate at times not to have been intercepted. But if the idea this year is that the Vikings were trading a play-it-safe QB for a riskier one, the result has been being far more explosive while having a QB turning it over less than his predecessor is this year.

Whether that continues Sunday is another matter, and it is a significant one for the Vikings. They are 10-2 and will know before kickoff what is at stake.

The Lions (11-1) play host to the Packers (9-3) on Thursday Night Football. A Green Bay upset would give the Vikings a chance to pull even with Detroit with a massive regular-season finale looming. A Lions victory would put pressure on the Vikings to keep pace but also would essentially eliminate the Packers from the division race.

The Vikings last won the division in 2022, Cousins’ last full year as a starter here. That season ended on a fourth-and-8 checkdown short of the sticks, in case anyone forgot.