You know Murphy's Law — the colloquialism stating that anything that can go wrong will indeed do so. It's not an actual law of nature. Bad outcomes are simply easier to remember.
You probably also have heard of the butterfly effect — the notion that small variances in initial conditions can have profound effects down the line. This is a real thing. But while it suggests that matters should be controlled before they get out of hand, what it really demonstrates is the inherent unpredictability of complex systems.
So neither phenomenon makes a perfect model for public policy. Yet skeptics of the "Border-to-Border Touring Route" planned for "adventure riders" in northern Minnesota seem at least thematically persuaded that both apply. The group Citizens for Sustainable Off-Roading recently sought an environmental review in an 844-page petition listing every conceivable impact from the fouling of waters to the spreading of invasive species to the disruption of it all for wildlife and for more contemplative nature lovers. It was thorough, but speculative.
The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — the agency involved in planning the route and thus the one obligated to respond to the petition — used just 10 pages to deny the review. Specifically, the DNR concluded that direct environmental effects regarding water, invasive species, rare species and fire risk would be limited, and that "those related to noise, dust and fugitive emissions" — particles that travel far from their source — "are reversible."
The DNR's terse analysis is correct. Preparations for the route should proceed.
The border-to-border route, "B2B" for short, is really just the layering of a map atop a 764-mile patchwork of mostly unpaved but scenic back roads that already are open for public use. It is not intended for off-road driving or all-terrain vehicles — a conclusion that many who hear about the plans jump to — but rather for highway-licensed vehicles with four-wheel or all-wheel drive. No new roads would be built.
The Legislature directed the DNR in 2015 to explore such projects, though it didn't specify where. The route the agency and its partner, the Minnesota 4 Wheel Drive Association, have identified — with the input of local officials in eight counties between the northwestern corner of the state and Lake Superior near Silver Bay — has not been finalized and could be modified to address concerns even after formal use begins. It also would be considered seasonal and subject to temporary detours based on conditions.
Signs would be added, and GPS would help point the way. The whole endeavor would be advertised with the hope of drawing adventurers from near and far.
