Analysis: Thousands of tickets remain to see Lionel Messi play Minnesota United at Allianz Field. Why?

Everyone around Minnesota United is excited about Inter Miami’s visit on May 10, coming as it does with the possibility of seeing the greatest soccer player in history play at Allianz Field.

The key word there: possibility.

For all his greatness, Lionel Messi is neither ageless nor indefatigable, nor is he required to play in every one of Miami’s games. And so some teams — Vancouver last season, Houston a few weeks ago — have planned big events when Miami was on their home schedule, only to see the guest of honor fail to show up.

The game in Houston was Miami’s fourth game in a stretch that had the Herons playing eight games in 26 days, thanks to the CONCACAF Champions Cup. So resting Messi made sense for the visitors, which was still small consolation to all the people in pink Inter Miami jerseys in the stands in Houston.

The Argentinian legend missed the team’s next two games as well, before returning last Thursday in the CCC, and then playing the entire game last Sunday at Atlanta United. It’s the sort of match schedule you might expect for a 37-year-old, except that Messi is no ordinary soccer senior citizen.

Miami’s trip to Minnesota comes at a better time in its schedule, in terms of potential rest days. Inter Miami won’t have a midweek game the week beforehand, though they are scheduled to go to San Jose four days after the game in Minnesota.

Unlike Vancouver — and for that matter San Jose — the flight from Miami to the Twin Cities is merely long, rather than transcontinental. And Allianz Field has natural grass, rather than the Vancouver artificial turf that could be counted on to rattle aged knees. It must be said, though, that Houston had a grass field and a short flight, too.

As much as we might study flight times and playing surfaces, there’s simply no predicting what first-year Miami coach (and certified Friend of Messi) Javier Mascherano might do with his compatriot. Any team in the world is better with Messi on it, but Miami has shown the ability to win without him, and the Herons have a packed schedule this year — including playing in the Club World Cup in June.

As of this week, there were thousands of tickets for the May 10 game at Allianz Field listed for sale on SeatGeek, including hundreds still available direct from the team. Those tickets range in price from $300, for a spot in the supporter’s section, to more than $10,000, for field-level tickets behind the Miami bench (aka prime selfie territory).

That so many were available, though, is a sign that fans are quite aware that Messi’s presence in Minnesota is by no means guaranteed.

Both Houston and Vancouver tried to make up Messi’s absence to their fans; the Dynamo gave fans a free ticket to a future game, while Vancouver gave away food. But both ended up enduring the ultimate indignity: not only did Messi not show up, but Miami ended up winning easily without him.

The remarkable thing is that in other eras of MLS, any of Messi’s famous teammates — Luis Suarez, Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba — might have been plenty to draw fans. But Messi is the one that ratchets up the excitement from “genuine sports interest” to “Taylor Swift, at a soccer stadium.”

Those who already have tickets, and those who are saving up to buy them, can only wait and cross their fingers that Messi’s health and Miami’s competitive needs will both hold out. It’s likely the only chance Minnesota soccer fans will ever have to see their team take on Messi in Minnesota; it was a stroke of luck that the schedule-makers even put Miami in the Twin Cities this season.

And so begins months of tracking: will Messi even make it to Minnesota?