Mark Craig: Fool him once ... twice ... but no more

MANKATO - SportsNation polled 6,719 people Tuesday, and 3,628 of them weren't buying what the boy who cried retirement is trying to sell one more time.

Call me Mr. 3,629.

I could be wrong because one of these decades, Brett Favre will retire. But I draw the line at being one of Favre's suckers somewhere short of three times in three years.

I bought the elephant tears in Green Bay after the 2007 season. I bought the bum biceps in New York after the 2008 season. I refuse to buy on Aug. 3 the notion that a slow-healing ankle will keep Favre from playing for a Super Bowl favorite only months after having the best of his 19 seasons.

So swallow that hook if you will. Run your Favre memorials and top 10 moments -- again -- while 54 percent of ESPN SportsNation and I wait for Favre to say: A, the media blew everything out of proportion and, B, "My ankle's feelin' better, but it'll never be perfect cuz I'm 40, but this ain't my first rodeo, so I can deal with it, but you never know cuz I'm 40, but then again I feel great, but who knows. Did I mention I'm 40?"

For the sake of Tuesday's Star Tribune report that Favre told Vikings personnel he will retire, I will at least acknowledge that Tuesday was the first day it appeared the entire world could have been wrong to assume for seven months that Favre will play this season.

If it's true and he doesn't play, the hissing sound you hear is a Super Bowl favorite shrinking into the second-best team in the NFC North behind a Packers squad that's probably grinning from earhole to earhole right now.

Jackson has enjoyed the rare benefit of having had the same head coach, coordinator, position coach and offensive system for going on five years. That has to help some. He's also surrounded by an elite defense, a great running back and one of the league's best receiving trios, when healthy.

"It's the same team, just minus one person," said wishful thinking receiver Bernard Berrian. "That's the only difference."

Um, not exactly. While it's unfair to compare Jackson in any way to Favre, how can we not when assessing the team's chances of winning the NFC? Dallas, Green Bay, the Giants, New Orleans and Atlanta are at least five teams that would zoom ahead of the Vikings as contenders with much better situations at quarterback.

Where Favre sees the entire field and often anticipates what the defense is about to do, Jackson's vision and anticipation seem limited, which leads to bad decisions, poorly thrown balls and the dangerous habit of focusing on one receiver. Or at least that was the case 18 months ago when Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel took a Jackson pass the other way for a layup touchdown in a playoff upset at the Metrodome.

Jackson is 10-10 as a starter, including that postseason loss to the Eagles. He's also a career 58.7 percent passer in an offense that wants its QB at 65 percent or better. But who knows, maybe he has a better understanding of the game after watching Favre for a year.

"They're a team that can still win 10 games," ESPN analyst and former NFL receiver Keyshawn Johnson said.

Jackson is often given too much credit for the Vikings winning 10 games and a division title in 2008. He started 0-2 that year, got benched in favor of Gus Frerotte for the next 11 and then went 2-1 over the final three regular-season games.

In their first five games this year, the Vikings play Dallas at home and the Saints and Jets on the road. What if they're 2-3 without Favre?

Simple. The boy who cried retirement unretires Oct. 18, giving him six full days to prepare for Game 6 in prime time at Lambeau Field.