Mark Craig's Week 1 NFL picks against the spread

The Week 1 slate includes five matchups between playoff teams from last season.

September 9, 2021 at 1:49PM
Quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens open against the Raiders in Las Vegas. (Carolyn Kaster, Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fans are being welcomed back into NFL stadiums with some of the best Week 1 matchups in some time.

Five games feature two playoff teams from last season. The largest point spread of any game is 8. Sam Darnold's new team (Carolina) plays host to Sam Darnold's old team (Jets). And the 4 ½-point favorite Ravens are ripe for a Monday Night Football upset as they travel to Las Vegas to play the Raiders in the first game with fans allowed inside $2 billion Allegiant Stadium.

The other prime-time matchup remaining sends the Bears to Los Angeles to face Aaron Donald and the NFL's reigning No. 1-ranked defense in the first game with fans allowed inside $5 billion SoFi Stadium.

Good luck, Andy Dalton. You'll need it in your Bears debut. Good luck, Matthew Stafford. You won't need it in your Rams debut.

Here's a look at the rest of this week's games, after the Buccaneers edged the Cowboys 31-29 in Thursday's season opener:


Vikings (-3) at Bengals: Vikings by 9
There are so many question marks swirling around the Vikings. But they're healthy and talented enough to earn the benefit of any doubts in a Week 1 matchup against a lesser team. The upgrades on defense and having Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson primed after sitting out the preseason are enough to take care of a Bengals team that's still rebuilding. Vikings 30, Bengals 21

Eagles (+3) at Falcons: Falcons by 6
In a game featuring two really bad defenses, put this guesstimator down for saying Matt Ryan will outscore Jalen Hurts.

Steelers (+6 ½) at Bills: Bills by 3
Look for Pittsburgh to keep it close, but the continued rise of Josh Allen and the Bills meets and defeats the ongoing decline of Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

49ers (-7 ½) at Lions: 49ers by 17
The start of the Dan Campbell era in Detroit won't be pretty. Jimmy Garoppolo will start and benefit from facing a defense coming off the third-most points allowed in NFL history (32.4). Poor Jared Goff faces a 49ers defense that's healthy again.

Cardinals (+3) at Titans: Titans by 7
As if the NFC West wasn't enough to tangle with, Arizona opens with a Titans team sporting Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and that new guy, Julio Jones. Goodness, that's a lot of offense to contend with. Good luck keeping pace, Kyler Murray.

Seahawks (-3) at Colts: Seahawks by 7
Not yet buying in on Carson Wentz turning things around in Indy. And definitely not buying in on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks not being a contender in the NFC.

Chargers (-1) at Washington: Washington by 3
Home-field advantage, arguably the best defensive line in football and the Washington debut of FitzMagic trumps the beginning of Justin Herbert's second season.

Jets (+4½) at Panthers: Panthers by 7
The Jets will lose again with Darnold on the field. Only this time, Zach Wilson gets the blame while Sam will be on the other side smiling alongside a healthy Christian McCaffrey.

Jaguars (-3) at Texans: Jaguars by 9
The Jaguars have been rebuilt with No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence under center. The Texans have been demolished with their best player, Deshaun Watson, serving as the No. 3 quarterback. Jacksonville won't win many, but it does play Houston twice.

Browns (+5½) at Chiefs: Chiefs by 7
There's talent everywhere on both sides of the field in this rematch of last year's exciting playoff win by the Chiefs. Kansas City pretty much has it all and then some, including a revamped offensive line to protect the game's best player, Patrick Mahomes.

Dolphins (+3) at Patriots: Patriots by 7
The Patriots are at home, they've got their league-leading number of 2020 COVID-19 opt-outs back, their defense is underrated and it looks like rookie QB Mac Jones already knows what the heck he's doing.

Packers (-3 ½) at Saints: Packers by 14
Aaron Rodgers vs. Jameis Winston in Jacksonville. End. Of. Discussion.

Broncos (-3) at Giants: Broncos by 3
Neither team's quarterback situation will wow anybody, but In Teddy We Trust. At least when he's facing Daniel Jones and that Giants O-line.

Bears (+7 ½) at Rams: Rams by 9
Raise your hand if you think there is any way Dalton does anything but further inflame the outcry for Justin Fields to supplant him as the starting quarterback.

UPSET SPECIAL

Ravens (-4 ½) at Raiders: Raiders by 7
Yes, this Upset Special probably shows waaaay too much faith in a weak Raiders defense that's facing Lamar Jackson and his new weapons. Why? The strength of you fans and how you can impact a game. You're back and your teams' defenses missed you dearly in 2020. Raiders 28, Ravens 21

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about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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