Eight of the NFL's 14 true road teams are favored this week, which would seem strange if not for the fact that home-field advantage seems to be getting less advantageous.
Between 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams, and 2019, home teams won 57% of the time. That number was 52% in 2019 – the lowest since 2002 — and was 46.8% (37-42, not counting Atlanta's "home" game in London last week or the Saints' "home" game in Jacksonville in Week 1).
Last week, all five road favorites won. Three of them covered and the Packers pushed.
So, after going 12-4 straight-up and 9-7 against the spread and NAILING the Vikings as the Lock of the Week (never a doubt, folks), this NFL guesstimator says this don't-take-it-to-the-bank stuff about the seven true road favorites that will play Sunday and Monday:
- Take the Vikings, Packers, Bengals and Lock-of-the-Week Rams to win and cover. And, yes, the Rams are 9-point road faves.
- Take the Chiefs to win but not cover. (Not with a defense that poor.)
- And do not take the red-hot Cowboys or red-hotter Bills to win. Why? Because we so-called experts are liking on them way too much and, this being the NFL, it's time for them to make us look bad by having their four-game winning streaks end.
Here's a look at this week's games:
Vikings (-2 ½) at Panthers
Five of Sam Darnold's six interceptions have come with Christian McCaffrey sidelined the past two games. McCaffrey is out again, which keeps the pressure on Darnold. The Vikings are 0-2 on the road but gave unbeaten Arizona its toughest test. The Vikings' resurgent pass rush will harass Darnold, and the Vikings' offense will again do enough to win with or without Dalvin Cook. Vikings 23, Panthers 21
