Mark Craig's Week 7 NFL picks

Cincinnati is in the Game of the Week, Arizona is favored by 17 points and this NFL guesstimator is crawling out on a very short limb and making Matthew Stafford a lock to beat the Lions and post the best seven-game start of his 13-year career.

When it comes to the NFL, last year's downtrodden are so often this year's up-and-comers, and vice versa.

In kind of a meh week of games, the Vikings are resting with a bye, the Packers are relaxing with a home game against Washington, and three teams are favored by double digits, including the Buccaneers at home against the Bears.

Last week, seven true road teams were favored. Six of them won and covered. Only one of them, Buffalo at Tennessee, lost on Monday night (as — shameless plug — guessed correctly here).

The Bills-Titans game featured seven lead changes. But, ho-hum, it was the third such see-saw game of the season.

Three games went into overtime, pushing that total to 11 on the year and forcing this guesstimator to predict his first OT decision (a Philly special in Vegas).

Twenty-three games have now been decided in the final minute of regulation or overtime. The Vikings own four of them.

This week's Upset Special (Giants over Panthers) is one of five upset picks. The others: Colts at 49ers, Eagles at Raiders, Falcons at Dolphins, and Titans over Chiefs.

Here's a look at this week's games:

SUNDAY'S GAMES

Jets (+7) at Patriots: Patriots 28, Jets 13

Bill Belichick vs. Zach Wilson is a great way for the Patriots to avoid going 0-5 at home. Wilson threw four picks in his Week 2 loss to the Patriots.

Chiefs (-4) at Titans: Titans 28, Chiefs 26

The seemingly indestructible Derrick Henry will help Tennessee control the ball long enough to beat K.C. six days after beating Buffalo. Beware the Titans, you AFCers.

Washington (+8) at Packers: Packers 34, Washington 24

The WFT has given up 30 or more points the past four games. Aaron Rodgers will make it five while winning a sixth consecutive game.

Falcons (+2) at Dolphins: Falcons 24, Dolphins 17

When in doubt, pick the team coming off a bye to beat the team that played — and lost to Jacksonville — in London last week.

Bengals (+6) at Ravens: Ravens 28, Bengals 23

The surprising Bengals will make it close, but they're not quite ready to beat Lamar Jackson (5-0 against Cincy) and the hottest team in the AFC.

Lions (+16) at Rams: Rams 43, Lions 19

Matthew Stafford has never started 6-1. Until now. Stafford over his former and still woeful team is the Lock of the Week.

Eagles (+3) at Raiders: Eagles 27, Raiders 21 OT

Philly is a scrappy bunch that will stop the run, pressure Derek Carr and ride Jalen Hurts to an overtime touchdown upset.

Texans (+17) at Cardinals: Cardinals 45, Texans 6

The Cardinals are going to lose. Just not this week. Give the points.

Bears (+11) at Buccaneers: Buccaneers 33, Bears 24

The Bucs have covered the spread twice as double-digit favorites this season. But they have also played down to the Patriots and Eagles. The Bears will keep it relatively close.

Colts (+4) at 49ers: Colts 31, 49ers 28

Carson Wentz and the Colts are gaining confidence and motivated by being in a bad division.

MONDAY'S GAME

Saints (-4) at Seahawks: Saints 35, Seahawks 29

No Russell Wilson, a terrible Seattle pass defense and rested Saints team coming off a bye helps this prime-time showcase of Jameis Winston.

UPSET SPECIAL

Panthers (-3) at Giants: Giants 22, Panthers 19

The Giants are going to win more than one game. They are at home, and the free-falling Panthers will look like a beatable FCS team after blowout losses to the Cowboys and Rams. Survivor Poolers, beware of picking against the Giants this week.

Last week's Upset Special: Patriots (+4) 21, Cowboys 18. Actual score: Cowboys 35, Patriots 29 OT. Record: 4-2.

Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 10-4/ 6-8.

Season record straight up/against the spread: 61-33/ 45-49.

Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 5-1/ 3-3.