Mavericks-Timberwolves betting pick: How to bet Game 1 ATS

The first two rounds of the 2024 NBA Playoffs are now in the books and we have arrived at the Western Conference Finals.

This year’s matchup features two young teams led by emerging superstars looking to capture their first NBA Championship in the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks.

Game 1 of the series tips off this evening from the Target Center in Minnesota where a sold-out crowd will be hoping to see their team continue this amazing Playoff run.

Before the action gets underway, let’s detail the best bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks looking at the odds, point spread, and over-under total.

As the Western Conference Finals get ready to begin the action this evening, it seems fitting to recap the road that has led to this matchup.

The three-seed Minnesota Timberwolves looked utterly dominant in Round 1, taking out the Phoenix Suns in a quick 4-0 sweep. Then in the second round, the Wolves faced off with the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a scintillating series that went all seven games. Minnesota prevailed and now finds itself in the franchise’s first Conference Finals since 2004.

The Mavericks entered the Playoffs as the five-seed and found themselves in another postseason matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers. Winning that series in six games, the Mavs then moved on to Round 2 where they were met by the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

Dallas also won that series in six games and now arrives in the Western Conference Finals for the second time in the last four seasons.

As the last two teams remaining in the west get ready to play Game 1 of the Conference Finals, let’s check out the odds and make a pick from the moneylines, point spreads, and over-under total for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks.

As they will be the home team for Games 1 and 2 of this series, the Timberwolves enter tonight’s matchup as a slight favorite (-4.5 point spread) and can be bet at (-185) odds on the moneyline. For the underdog Mavericks (+4.5 point spread), their moneyline number sits at +154.

Dallas is an impressive 4-2 on the road so far in these Playoffs, while the Timberwolves come into tonight’s game with a 3-2 record at home through their first five postseason games.

From an ATS (against the spread) perspective, the Mavs are 4-2 ATS in road Playoff games this season, and are 8-4 ATS in Playoff games as a whole. The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS in home Playoff games and 8-3 ATS in total Playoff games this season.

With that data in hand, I feel the safest play for this game is to take the points and bet the Mavericks +4.5 on the spread.

The Timberwolves are coming off an emotional high after winning a Game 7 on the road in Denver, and will be under serious pressure to hold home-court advantage in the opening games of this series.

Dallas has an extra day of rest advantage and should come into this one playing loose and free.

Pick: Dallas +4.5