Meteorologists Know When They're Wrong

Expect light winds and blue sky today with 50s, but 60s return Thursday, with winds gusting to 40 mph. We cool off Friday with sunshine and highs near 50F this weekend. I don't see any accumulating snow through Thanksgiving Day. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

November 15, 2023 at 3:30AM

"Bright flash in Bemidji sky on Monday could have been a meteor"

"Beltrami County authorities said they're following up with other agencies to investigate the unusual occurrence. Residents of Beltrami County were startled Monday evening when a sudden loud explosion accompanied by a bright flash lit up the sky, according to the county's Emergency Communications Center. Authorities speculated the flash in the north-central Minnesota county was caused by a meteor and were following up with other agencies to investigate the unusual occurrence, which happened around 6:40 p.m. Most sightings initially were concentrated in Bemidji's Nymore residential district. But residents in southern Beltrami County and even neighboring counties later reported that they had witnessed, heard and felt the loud powerful boom, officials said. County officials shared a video on their emergency management Facebook page that was captured by the home surveillance camera of a Nymore resident in Bemidji."

Flash Boom Video (Beltrami County Emergency Management/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin

November 13th through the 17th is Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Each year, the National Weather Service, the Minnesota Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and Wisconsin Emergency Management promote winter safety and preparedness for all citizens wherever they are: in their homes, on the road, at work and at play. Unfortunately, many people each year suffer needlessly because they are unaware of the potential dangers of the winter season. Winter safety information will be presented each day during the week of November 13th. The winter safety information will be separated into the 5 topics this week:

Monday, November 13th: Winter Storms

Tuesday, November 14th: Outdoor Winter Safety

Wednesday, November 15th: Winter Fire Safety

Thursday, November 16th: Indoor Air Quality in the Winter

Friday, November 17th: Winter Driving

MN DOT Snow Plow (MN DOT/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook This Week

The weather through the rest of the week looks mostly dry and mild. A quick-moving storm system will scoot through the region later this week with gusty winds, but very little precipitation is expected. There will be a bit of a cooldown as we slide into the weekend.

Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Strong Winds Expected Thursday

Thursday will be another very windy day with gusts approaching 30mph to 40mph across the region. These strong winds will be in association with a dry cold front sweeping across the state. There won't be any precipitation, but temperatures will fall a bit as we approach the end of the week and weekend ahead.

Peak Wind Gusts Expected on Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Strong Winds Expected Thursday

Here is the 5 day peak wind gust forecast for Minneapolis. Note that winds will once again be quite strong on Thursday with gusts approaching 40mph. Winds will still be breezy on Friday with gusts approaching 35mph, but lighter winds return into the weekend.

5 Day Peak Wind Gusts For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through early next week shows very little precipitation across the state. Things could become a little more active as we approach Thanksgiving Day, but lots could change between now and then.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Warmer & Drier Start to November So Far

Despite being chillier than average earlier this month, temperatures have been quite a bit warmer than average as of late. That being said, the average temperature in the Twin Cities is nearly +3.1F above average with precipitation running more than -0.70" below average. There hasn't been any snowfall registered at the airport, which is nearly -2.0" below average.

Twin Cities November Summary So Far (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Average Snowfall

The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.

Twin Cities Average Snowfall (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Recent heavy rains since late September have helped the drought situation quite a bit in across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, November 15th will still be nearly +15F to +20F above average for this time of the year. Skies will remain dry and quiet with much lighter winds than what we had on Tuesday.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the around 40F in the morning and will warm into the mid 50s by the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be lighter than they were Tuesday, so it should be another very enjoyable day for mid November.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for Wednesday will be nearly +10F to +20F above average across the state under partly to mostly sunny skies. Wednesday will feel more like early October than mid-November once again.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows mild temperatures continuing through the week ahead with readings warming into the 50s and 60s, which will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for this time of the year. We'll cool off into the 40s as we approach the weekend, which will still be a little above average for this time of the year.

Highs From Average on Wedneseday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows very warm and October-like readings continuing through the week. It'll also stay mostly dry with cooler weather returning as we approach the end of the week and weekend ahead.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be quite a bit warmer than average as we continue through the middle part of the month. Readings could warm into the mid/upper 50s and low 60s, which will be well above average for that time of the year. Overnight lows could be in the 30s and 40s, which is above average for this time of the year. As we head into the 2nd half of the month, readings fall into the 30s with overnight lows in the 20s.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Atlantic Hurricane Season Winding Down

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. November is typically a very quiet month, but there can still be storms. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, there is a high chance of tropical formation in the Caribbean over the next 7 days. Regardless if this storm develops, areas of very heavy rainfall may be possible across parts of the northern Caribbean through the week ahead.

7 Day Atlantic Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions across the Central US will be fairly quiet over the next several days with mostly dry weather in place through much of next week. A large storm system looks to take shape along the East Coast as we head into the weekend with strong winds and heavy rainfall. Some spots in the high elevations in the Northeast could see heavy snowfall.

National Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the nation with warmer temperatures will develop in the Western US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across parts of the Southern and Southeastern US. Meanwhile, it looks drier across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteorologists Know When They're Wrong
By Paul Douglas

If you're a meteorologist you're only as good as your last forecast. Readers helpfully point out when I'm wrong, but believe me, I know when I blow it. We look at the data, models and factor in institutional knowledge (and gutfeel) - committing to a specific prediction. And then we pace. And worry. And glance out the window every 15 minutes. "Why is it cloudy? Where did those FLURRIES come from?" We second-guess ourselves, and when we bust a forecast, take time to figure out what went wrong and why. It's a hairy learning curve - be glad you have a real gig.

Mid-60s in mid-November? Not too shabby, considering limited daylight and a sun angle similar to late January. Expect light winds and blue sky today with 50s, but 60s return Thursday, with winds gusting to 40 mph. There's a 70% probability those pesky leaves will blow into your neighbor's yard. Good times.

We cool off Friday with sunshine and highs near 50F this weekend. I don't see any accumulating snow through Thanksgiving Day. We catch a break.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, light winds. Winds: S 5-10. High: 57.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Winds: SSE 5-15. Low: 50.

THURSDAY: Dim sun, balmy. Winds gust to 40. Winds: SW 20-40. High 63.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and much cooler. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 33. High 44.

SATURDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 34. High 50.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, still milder than average. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 31. High 51.

MONDAY: Clouds increase, nighttime shower. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 34. High: 49.

TUESDAY: Morning shower, then clearing. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 31. High 44.

This Day in Weather History

November 15th

1976: So far this year there were over three thousand forest fires in Minnesota.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 14th

Average High: 42F (Record: 69F set in 1953)

Average Low: 28F (Record: 1F set in 1911, 1932 & 1940)

Record Rainfall: 1.58" set in 1996

Record Snowfall: 5.1" set in 1956

Twin Cities Almanac For November 15th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 15th

Sunrise: 7:10am

Sunset: 4:44pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 34 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 22 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 13 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 14th at Midnight

2.9 Days Since New Moon

Moon Phase For November 15th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

The weather outlook across the Central US shows warmer than average temperatures in place across much of the Central U.S., where temperatures could be nearly +10F to +20F above average for this time of the year. Meanwhile, folks along the East Coast will be a little cooler than average for this time of the year.

National Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows areas heavy rain continuing across parts of the Southeastern US. The Western US turns a little more unsettled with rain mixed with high elevation snow.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows areas of heavy rain continuing in the Southeastern US. A powerful cool front will blast through the Midwest on Thursday with strong winds, but very little precipitation. Rain will develop along and east of the Great Lakes at the end of the week. There will also be a surge of precipitation across California as well.

National Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavier rain across the Southern US and decent precipitation along the West Coast. A larger storm system will develop along the East Coast with areas of heavy rain possible and especially in the Northern New England States.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some decent snowfall along the international border and just north into Canada.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Millions of homes are being built in fire-prone grasslands"

"Homes built in areas with grasslands and shrublands face a greater risk of fire as development expands and the effects of climate change intensify. However, a new report published Thursday finds that the number of homes inside widening wildfire perimeters have doubled since the 1990s. According to researchers, of the 55,000 homes that burned between 2010 and 2022, two-thirds burned in grassland and shrubland fires. But according to Volker Radeloff, professor of forest life and ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and co-author of the paper, while climate change and drought play a major role, the expansion of housing developments on the outskirts of urban areas are driving risk: Between 1990 and 2020, nearly 44 million homes were built in these wildland-urban interface areas."

"New analysis finds strong El Niño could bring extra floods this winter"

"An analysis by NASA's sea level change science team finds that if a strong El Niño develops this winter, cities along the western coasts of the Americas could see an increase in the frequency of high-tide flooding that can swamp roads and spill into low-lying buildings. El Niño is a periodic climate phenomenon characterized by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. These conditions can spread poleward along the western coasts of the Americas. El Niño, which is still developing this year, can bring more rain than usual to the U.S. Southwest and drought to countries in the western Pacific like Indonesia. These impacts typically occur in January through March."

"The past 12 months were the hottest ever on record"

"The 12 months between November 2022 and October 2023 saw global average temperatures rise 1.32°C above the preindustrial average – that is 0.03°C above the previous record set between October 2015 and September 2016. "This is the hottest temperature our planet has experienced in something like 125,000 years," says Andrew Pershing at Climate Central, a climate science nonprofit in the US. Pershing and his colleagues based their analysis on surface temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. They found that the main driver of the heat was global warming due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Attributing the exact amount of warming to different factors is challenging, but Friederike Otto at Imperial College London says about 1.28°C of the rise in average temperatures can be attributed to climate change."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

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Todd Nelson

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