Twin Cities area audiences return, but arts groups 'not out of the woods yet'

"Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas" is on track to become the biggest-selling show in Children's Theatre history. Bang-up business for the Ordway's "Disney's Beauty and the Beast" means box office and attendance figures not seen in more than a decade. And Theater Latté Da's "Christmas at the Local" sold at 93% of capacity — a strong take for a known property and more impressive for this brand-new title.

"People have not just come back, but they're full of energy and exuberance," Ordway president and CEO Chris Harrington said. "And we invite people to come join the party."

These positive figures give hope to performing arts companies that faced empty seats and paltry revenues during the pandemic. But there's an open question about whether all audiences will return, especially to live events. Millennials are coming back with gusto, even as consumer habits change. But baby boomers, notably, remain cautious about attending fine arts events, although they show up for pop music concerts, according to interviews with Twin Cities arts leaders.

Their concerns are widely shared across the country. Ticket sales fell by as much as 90% for North American arts groups during the pandemic, said Eric Nelson, client engagement officer for TRG Arts, a global company that helps arts groups find and retain audiences. Now, comparing January to September 2019 with the same period in 2022, sales are down 18%.

Before the pandemic, 20% to 30% of arts patrons were first-time ticket buyers. That figure has ballooned to 50%, increasing what arts groups call churn and raising a question about how to keep that audience. "From a generational standpoint, millennials have come back faster than Gen Xers and baby boomers," Nelson said.

"The topline trend is that we're actually getting closer and closer to pre-pandemic levels," he said. "The opportunity for arts organizations is to think about how to get those new people to come back with regularity."

Ramping up

Like most Twin Cities music clubs and concert halls, First Avenue's promotional team reported strong 2022 attendance across its six venues, including St. Paul's Palace and Fitzgerald theaters.

"Not quite at pre-COVID numbers, but pretty close and looking even better for next year," is how First Avenue general manager Nate Kranz put it. "Considering we were back in near-lockdown mode in January and February, the rest of the year more than made up for that."

Outdoor concerts sold especially well, even as concerns about COVID-19 lessened, said Jesse Brodd, talent buyer at the Hook & Ladder and Medina Entertainment Center. Brodd said ticket sales overall "ramped up as the year went on and ended up stronger than ever."

Most theaters, orchestras, dance companies and the Minnesota Opera are building back gradually.

Minnesota Orchestra attendance is off by 10% from pre-pandemic levels, president Michelle Miller Burns said.

"The arts were hit hard, and it's a long journey back," she said. "We never entirely shut down, and that fact has really helped our resurgence. We've had steady, positive progress."

Children's Theatre artistic director Peter Brosius said, "There's such a hunger for community and to be in space together after this long haul of isolation. We're not out of the woods yet, but watching something live is rejuvenating, exhilarating and palpable."

Couch competition

During lockdown, the Minnesota Orchestra pivoted to broadcasting online and in partnership with Twin Cities public television station TPT. The orchestra saw its audiences grow exponentially. Suddenly, a concert that could only be seen live by 2,000 people at Orchestra Hall could be viewed by tens of thousands across the globe.

The downside, if you could call it that, is that audiences become accustomed to curating their experiences from their homes. It used to be that live events competed against one another, Miller Burns said. No more.

"What we know now is some of our primary competition is the couch," said said. "That opportunity to stay home in your comfortable clothes and create your own experience at home — those were some habits that were formed."

And some are trying to break them. Theatre Latté Da has scaled back its online offerings. It wants people back in the seats in person. To that end, the company is taking great care about its programming.

Keeping body counts low

"Joy feels more important than ever," said Latté Da founder and artistic director Peter Rothstein. "The world is so heavy now that I feel like there's great poignancy in finding common joy in the room."

That is the thrust behind "Christmas at the Local," a music-suffused show about people coming together. "Coming together and having our hearts beat in sync is as valuable as the content we offer," Rothstein said.

As the Minnesota Opera plans its coming season, it also is taking care to not have a high body count onstage.

"We consciously decided we don't need to kill a bunch of people this season," said Minnesota Opera president and general director Ryan Taylor. "People have enough that they're dealing with. We were conscious about programming in a way that gives people drama, catharsis, laughter and joy but doesn't tip into violence, which could add to everything else that people are dealing with."

Multigenerational works seem to help, too. Harrington of the Ordway said that research and experience show that works with wide appeal, such as "Beauty and the Beast," hits the sweet spot with audiences.

"Beauty," which played to more than 90% of capacity and drew 50,000 patrons to downtown St. Paul, is the biggest locally originated Ordway show since "White Christmas" in 2012. It followed "Six," the Tudor-queen Broadway juggernaut that sold at 98% of capacity.

"When I talk with colleagues across the nation, they expect a recovery period of five to seven years, so we're bucking the national trend," Harrington said.

Changes wrought by the pandemic

The pandemic brought other challenges. Patrons now wait much later to buy tickets, perhaps afraid that they may get sick or that a show may be canceled.

There also has been a noticeable increase in no-shows for purchased tickets. Before the pandemic, the no-show rate was about 5% to 8%, Taylor said. Now it's 20% to 25%, or about 1 in 5 ticket-buying patrons.

Another challenge made worse with rampant negative political ads before the November midterm elections, said Mark Nerenhausen, president and CEO of Broadway presenter Hennepin Theatre Trust: fear of downtown that leads to lack of critical mass. Patrons need reassurance that downtown is safe and welcoming, he said.

"We're on track to have 500,000 come to see Broadway and concerts this season," Nerenhausen said, pointing to overperforming titles such as "Les Misérables" and "Cats." "Terrifying people about certain neighborhoods in which large cultural institutions live doesn't help."

Staff at the nonprofit Cedar Cultural Center in the Cedar-Riverside area see their rejuvenating attendance numbers as being good for Minneapolis neighborhoods still rebounding from the riots after George Floyd's murder in 2020.

"We encourage our audiences to go have dinner or a drink down here before the show and enjoy this unique, wonderful neighborhood," Cedar's executive director Michelle Woster said.

Remote work means that downtown Minneapolis has lost some of its daytime vibrancy — and the businesses that offer small but key amenities.

"It's hard to get coffee or a sandwich downtown and the skyways close too early," said Lise Houlton, artistic director of Minnesota Dance Theatre. Still, the company's 58th production of "Loyce Houlton's Nutcracker Fantasy" played to 70% of capacity this year, up from last year's 60%.

Opportunity also emerged from the pandemic. For one thing, audiences no longer emphasize weekend shows, some organizations have found.

"I read not long ago that our parents' generation stayed in to eat and went out for entertainment; the current generation stays home for entertainment and goes out to eat," Latté Da's Rothstein said.

"There's interest in buying experiences as opposed to buying stuff," Chanhassen Dinner Theatres artistic director Michael Brindisi said.

Chanhassen's current show, "Footloose," has been on the boards since February. And it's "selling like crazy — it's on fire nine months into the run," Brindisi continued. "It does feel like we might be on the verge of a major comeback."

At the Guthrie Theater, the 48th production of "A Christmas Carol," typically one of the bestsellers in the season, "is one of the top-five 'Carols' ever," marketing and communications director Trisha Kirk said.

Guthrie artistic director Joseph Haj likened the challenge that arts organizations face to driving at night. You can only see what's illuminated by your headlights — by near-term vision — not the horizon. Even so, Haj said, "you can still drive across the country that way."

Piloting their institutions through uncertain times, arts leaders hope for a smooth trip.

"As we come back," Nerenhausen said, "it's not about getting back to where we were or trying to bring back the old normal, but to write that new chapter in our history."

Staff writer Chris Riemenschneider contributed to this report.