A 2023 Supreme Court ruling limiting the use of affirmative action in college admissions rattled colleges and universities across Minnesota and the country, with many officials wondering how the diversity of incoming students would change once they could no longer explicitly consider race as a factor in admissions.

Many experts worried that enrollment of Black, Latino and Native American students ― historically disadvantaged groups that benefited from affirmative action ― would plummet, as it did after states like California and Michigan discontinued affirmative action policies at their public universities years ago. Asian and white student numbers, some predicted, would increase.

A year and a half later, as Minnesota colleges begin finalizing their enrollment data, some have seen a decrease in students of color. But the demographic picture of first-year students that’s emerging is murky at best, with many saying it’s too soon to say exactly how the decision has affected enrollment.

“I might have expected a somewhat more dramatic, immediate drop [in diversity] that we’re not necessarily seeing with all schools yet,” said Steven Poskanzer, a political science professor and former president of Carleton College. “I wouldn’t assume a school that did OK this year, that they’re necessarily out of the woods.”

He called the Supreme Court decision “the biggest higher education law case that has come before the Supreme Court” since two decisions involving affirmative action in 2003.

Minnesota’s two most highly selective colleges — Carleton College in Northfield and Macalester College in St. Paul — saw decreases in their overall percentages of students of color, not including international students.

But drawing concrete conclusions is especially hard because last year’s admission process was complicated by a disastrous rollout of the new FAFSA form, the Free Application for Federal Student Aid that many use to determine which scholarships, grants and loans students should receive. It arrived later than expected and was riddled with problems, causing delays in receiving federal financial aid information.

In addition, Minnesota debuted its North Star Promise program, which covers up to 100% of tuition at state and tribal colleges for students whose families make $80,000 or less.

BG Tucker, senior director of programs at College Possible, a college access program for students from underrepresented communities, said 2024 “was a wild year for college access.”

“To make any blanket statements about how striking down affirmative action is impacting students and their application and enrollment process ... would be painting with too broad a brush,” she said.

Carleton has 16 fewer Black students this year while the number of students reporting two or more races stayed fairly steady in a class of 507 ― about 30 fewer students than last year. Art Rodriguez, vice president and dean of admission and financial aid at Carleton, said the decreases were tied to the changes the college had to make to align with the court decision.

“It was disappointing to ... have us slide back,” he said, adding that the proportion of students of color returned to levels from three years ago.

At Macalester, there were modest increases in the number of Black and Asian students but 18 fewer Latino students. The number of students reporting two races stayed steady. Macalester has a class of 560, about 40 more students than in fall 2023.

In a statement, Jeff Allen, Macalester’s vice president for admissions and financial aid, said the makeup of this year’s class “reflects the diversity Macalester strives to achieve with each class.”

Varying pictures emerged at other colleges. St. Olaf College didn’t provide exact figures, but the number of Black, Asian and students reporting two or more races fell, while there were “a few more” Latino students, said Chris George, St. Olaf’s associate vice president for enrollment. He said he thinks the court decision “played a role,” though FAFSA problems also had a disproportionate impact on first-generation and lower-income students.

At the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, officials didn’t have detailed information about racial groups but said 37% of first-year students identified as people of color. Numbers have risen since 2019, when 25% of first-year students fit that description. This year saw the largest incoming class since 1965.

“We also believe this is the most racially and ethnically diverse cohort on record,” said Keri Risic, executive director of admissions for the office of undergraduate admissions at the U’s Twin Cities campus.

Across the country, college administrators had been preparing for the Supreme Court decision for months when it was announced.

The decision came at a challenging time for many higher education institutions because the pool of prospective college students is shrinking, partly because of declining birthrates over a decade ago. The population of college-age students is also becoming more diverse.

By 2036, about 40% of Minnesota public high school graduates will be people of color, according to projections from the nonprofit Midwestern Higher Education Compact.

Affirmative action policies date back to the 1960s and aim to improve education and job opportunities for people of color. The policies had been challenged but mostly upheld, with courts previously ruling that colleges could consider race as one of many factors in a holistic admissions process.

Many state leaders are determined that college diversity won’t plummet as it did in states where it was prohibited by law; they hope Minnesota “bucks the trend,” Tucker said.

Gabrielle Brown Torres, a college and career coordinator for Achieve Twin Cities who works at Minneapolis’ Southwest High School, called the ruling “disappointing” because affirmative action allowed students from her program to be considered for admission at highly selective schools when they normally wouldn’t have been candidates.

She told students that colleges can’t use race alone as a factor, but students could mention race by explaining how it relates to their life in essays. She said no student was discouraged from applying anywhere because of the court decision.

Torres said she believes the ruling will cause college admissions staff to “pivot in how they recruit and admit their freshman classes.” Colleges must be more intentional with how they’re finding students to maintain diversity, she said.

Carleton’s Poskanzer said he believes colleges across the country followed the law in their admissions practices last year. It’s possible some schools that maintained diversity just got lucky, he said.

“I don’t think most schools are likely to stop thinking that having a diverse student body is a good thing,” he said.

Many colleges will likely implement new recruitment strategies to bring in diverse students, Poskanzer said. He predicted colleges will boost financial aid to get a diverse class. Others might try to maintain diversity by recruiting low-income students, since there’s some correlation between lower socioeconomic status and race.

Other strategies include admitting more transfer students, who tend to be more diverse, automatically offering admission to students who have a certain GPA or class rank, or getting rid of standardized test requirements. Some schools might give preference to students based on where they’re from geographically, Poskanzer said.

Some colleges said they were already stepping up their recruitment of diverse and low-income students; some efforts have been underway for years. Multiple colleges said they had increased their partnerships with college access programs and community groups.

The U recently created a position to focus on community engagement, Risic said. At Carleton, Rodriguez said the school was more aggressive in its recruitment strategies last year. The college also changed an essay question next year so students will share more of their background, their experiences and how they engage with students who are different from them. But he’s heard from high school counselors that not all 16- to 18-year-olds are mature enough to reflect on how, for instance, being the only Black student in their class affected them.

Colleges are still trying to assess what happened with this year’s class and why, Rodriguez said. Those that maintained or increased diversity will lean into previous practices that worked.

“It’s going to be an evolution,” he said. “Every year we’re going to learn something new.”