Minnesota Democrats hope Walz will provide down-ballot boost, help them keep state House

The last time Gov. Tim Walz and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar were both on the ballot, Democrats swept every statewide race and took control of the Minnesota House.

Six years later, state Democrats are again optimistic about having the now vice-presidential candidate Walz and Klobuchar at the top of the ticket as they seek to retain full control of state government. A Washington Post analysis found that vice presidential candidates boost their ticket by an average of 2.7 percentage points in their home states. That could translate to a larger victory for the Harris-Walz ticket that lifts other Minnesota Democrats on the ballot.

As for Klobuchar, a Star Tribune analysis of voter data found a correlation between election years when she is on the ballot and better results for Democrats in other races. Klobuchar has consistently outperformed other statewide candidates. Every year she’s run, the DFL has won whichever chambers of the Legislature were on the ballot.

“Klobuchar will still help us immensely down-ballot, but the addition of Gov. Walz, who’s immensely popular here in Minnesota, certainly doesn’t hurt. In fact, it helps,” said Minnesota DFL chairman Ken Martin, who’s at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week. “Gov. Walz, much like Klobuchar, overperforms the Democratic index in a lot of counties in greater Minnesota.”

Martin contrasts the top of the DFL ticket with the GOP’s, noting that former President Donald Trump is a felon, and Klobuchar’s challenger, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Royce White, has faced a slew of controversies.

“There’s no denying right now that Republican candidates for the Legislature are in very serious trouble,” Martin said. “They have a very narrow path to the majority.”

Minnesota GOP deputy chairwoman Donna Bergstrom acknowledged there’s been an increase in enthusiasm among state Democrats since Walz was elevated to the presidential ticket. But she said Republicans plan to counter it by highlighting what they see as Walz’s shortcomings as governor.

No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972. Republicans have said they don’t need Trump to win Minnesota for them to flip the state House, they just need him to perform better than he did in 2020, when he lost the state by about 7 percentage points. GOP state House candidates outperformed Trump by about 3 to 5 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020.

The GOP must gain four seats in the Minnesota House to win the majority.

“Our candidates typically do outperform,” said House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring. “We know that there’s areas in some of our targeted seats where Gov. Walz was just at 51% of the vote [in 2022]. There is a lot of room for movement.”

Demuth said the Minnesota House Republican Campaign Committee recruited candidates who are well-known and respected in their districts. State legislative races will be more about local issues, Demuth said, adding she thinks voters will disapprove of Walz and House Democrats spending a historic $17.5 billion budget surplus and raising some taxes.

“Restoring balance in the state of Minnesota with divided government, that is our goal,” Demuth said.

“The enthusiasm is definitely palpable,” Hortman said.

But that doesn’t mean Democrats will have an easy time this fall, she said. Hortman expects both Harris and Trump to turn out their Minnesota supporters in large numbers.

“When Donald Trump has been on the ballot before, he brings Republicans out to vote,” Hortman said. “Is Democratic enthusiasm so high that we are going to win in a walk off? No. Even as Democratic joy is so high, I think there are going to be Republicans who are more motivated to vote along with Democrats.”

Steven Schier, a political scientist and Carleton College professor emeritus, said the Harris-Walz ticket will likely have broad appeal in Minnesota. Walz’s job approval rating has consistently polled above 50%, Schier said. And he expects Harris to energize wealthy, college-educated voters.

Trump must figure out how to remain competitive in Minnesota now that Walz is on the Democratic ticket, Schier said. If he doesn’t, Schier said, it’s hard to see Republicans flipping the state House.