P.J. Fleck’s Gophers slumping vs. major conference opponents

P.J. Fleck sifted through the stats, pored over the film and drew his conclusions from the Gophers’ 31-14 loss to Iowa on Saturday night in a game in which Minnesota led 14-7 at halftime only to be steamrolled by the Hawkeyes in the second half.

“We’ve had two bad halves of football in four games in terms of performance,” the Gophers coach said Monday, two days after his team dropped its Big Ten opener and fell to 2-2.

Those two bad halves – the second half of the season opener against North Carolina in which Minnesota was outscored 12-3 and Saturday’s 24-0 Hawkeyes blitzkrieg – suddenly have the Gophers season nearing a tipping point. With games at No. 12 Michigan on Saturday and No. 13 USC on Oct. 5, the losing streak could stretch to three games.

And there aren’t many gimmes upcoming. Contests against unbeaten No. 9 Penn State, No. 19 Illinois and Rutgers remain, and the combined record of Minnesota’s remaining opponents is 21-7. UCLA, at 1-2, is the only opponent left that has a losing record.

“Our margin for error is small,” Fleck said. “In the eight years I’ve been here, it’s always been small. So, when you miss, you better miss really small.”

Saturday’s misses were of the bigger variety, especially against Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson, who rushed 21 times for 206 yards. He wore down the Gophers after intermission when he had touchdown runs of 15 and 40 yards.

“It became a tackling issue in the second half,” Fleck said. “We’d miss one tackle or hesitate and not shoot our tackle. If you do that against that back …”

On offense, Minnesota couldn’t get its run game going in the third quarter, when seven runs averaged 1.1 yards and produced only one first down.

“We didn’t run the ball with very much effectiveness. We didn’t throw the ball with very much effectiveness. And we probably could have called better plays, and I could have been a better head coach,” Fleck said. “Besides that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”

Fleck knows that his team must improve quickly against a challenging schedule. The Gophers already have lost their past five Big Ten games and their past six against teams from the Power Four conferences (Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12). In their past two seasons, the Gophers are 3-9 against Power Four squads, dropping Fleck’s overall mark in Minnesota in such contests to 36-35.

His win percentage in those Power Four games is 50.8%, still better than his most recent predecessors Tracy Claeys (7-8, 46.7%) and Jerry Kill (15-27, 35.7%). The recent trend, though, is fueling his detractors.

For those clamoring for the university to fire Fleck, don’t count on that happening. After UCLA in February contacted Fleck about its vacant coaching job, Gophers athletic director Mark Coyle and Fleck in March agreed to an amended contract that would give the coach $5.7 million in retention bonuses if he stayed through the 2029 season.

The contract also had new buyout numbers for Fleck. If the university terminates his contract without cause, it will owe Fleck a fee equal to 65% of the base salary, supplemental compensation and retention bonus that would have been paid to him throughout the remainder of the contract. If Fleck would be bought out before Dec. 31, 2024, the university would owe him $26.9 million. If he’s bought out between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2025, the buyout would be $22.4 million.

Adding to the financial issues, the university likely will have an upcoming bill of $20 million or more annually for revenue sharing with former student-athletes as part of the settlement of the House v. NCAA case, which is expected to be resolved soon.

The Big Ten on Monday announced that the Gophers’ Oct. 5 home game against USC will be at 6:30 p.m. on BTN. This will mark the first meeting between the Gophers and Trojans since 2011, when USC edged Minnesota 19-17. USC has a 6-1-1 record against the Gophers.