A gap shows between prep football prognosticators as the playoff picking continues

Staff writers David La Vaque and Jim Paulsen ponder five high school football playoff games.

November 3, 2022 at 8:07PM
Andover quarterback Landyn Nelson (12) rushes the ball against Elk River Friday, Sept. 9, 2022 during the first half of a football game at Elk River High School in Elk River, Minn. ] aaron.lavinsky@startribune.com
The Elk River defense and Andover quarterback Landyn Nelson crossed paths in early September, and they’ll be back at it Friday. (Aaron Lavinsky, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Staff writers Jim Paulsen and David La Vaque make an annual habit of trying to predict winners of high school football games. David remained on a roll Saturday, guessing right three times while Jim went 1-2. That makes David 24-12 this season, Jim 20-16. They picked five games for Friday's playoffs, all 7 p.m. kickoffs. Their picks and analysis:

Class 6A, White Bear Lake Bears (7-2) at Lakeville South Cougars (7-2)

David says: White Bear Lake has a lot in its favor. Four-game winning streak. A balanced offense. A defense that pitched shutouts twice in the past three weeks. Unfortunately for White Bear Nation, as the student section chants at games, the big thing working against the Bears this week is the opponent. Lakeville South simply plays a different level of football. The pick: Lakeville South 28, White Bear Lake 14

Jim says: These are the types of games that lend themselves to occasional upsets. The versatile Bears have traveled many different avenues to success and have won seven of eight since a season-opening loss at Blaine. Lakeville South is built for this time of year, relentless and fast. But if the Cougars get careless ... The pick: Lakeville South 34, White Bear Lake 20

Class 6A, Forest Lake Rangers (7-2) at Maple Grove Crimson (9-0)

David says: Tempting as it is to use this space to further pump the tires of Maple Grove dual-threat senior quarterback Jacob Kilzer, the Crimson defense deserves its due. Maple Grove has played 12 consecutive quarters without permitting a point. Tanner Albeck, Max Johnson, Cayden Vokal and their defensive brethren are playing dominant football. The pick: Maple Grove 31, Forest Lake 7

Jim says: A terrific breakthrough season for Forest Lake ends here. Maple Grove has been the most complete team in the metro all year. The Crimson won't get another shutout — Forest Lake has playmakers in Keagan Zeidler, Leyton Patzer and Westin Hoyt — but they will move on to the next round. The pick: Maple Grove 28, Forest Lake 14

Class 6A, Wayzata Trojans (5-4) at Rosemount Irish (9-0)

David says: Forget the records. Rosemount knows what this game means. Back in 2014, the Irish crushed Wayzata for a then-rare victory against a powerful Lake Conference foe. Rosemount has been a different program ever since. With no intention of going back to struggling against the big boys, the Irish take care of business. The pick: Rosemount 24, Wayzata 17

Jim says: Not sure how 2014 relates to this season. That was nine years ago. I'm fairly certain there are no players left from that team. Reputations linger, but this Rosemount team has shown itself to be a cut above the fray. Yes, these are kids, and they are predictable in their unpredictability, but coach Jeff Erdmann is elite and the Irish staff won't stand for a letdown with so much at stake. The pick: Rosemount 21, Wayzata 7

Class 6A, Lakeville North Panthers (4-5) at Stillwater Ponies (8-1)

David says: North looked impressive in victory last week at Minnetonka. But Stillwater should be favored. The Ponies got the postseason hiccups out in the first half last week. Whether it's because of quarterback Max Shikenjanski's arm or running back Sam Young's legs, Stillwater reaches its first state tournament since 2006. The pick: Stillwater 28, Lakeville North 21

Jim says: It's premature to say Lakeville North is back, but last week the Panthers looked very much like the dominant program they were a half-decade ago. The defense has looked like vintage North during the current three-game winning streak, flying to the ball. I'm going out on a limb and calling the upset in this one. The pick: Lakeville North 28, Stillwater 24

Class 5A, Andover Huskies (7-2) at Elk River Elks (9-0)

David says: Elk River edged the Huskies 67-35 back on Sept 9 — the fifth time in the past nine meetings that the teams combined for 80-plus points in a game. Bet the over. And expect Elk River's defense, led by Logan Bunker, Jack Lachmiller and Caleb Sandstrom, to make the difference. The pick: Elk River 49, Andover 21

Jim says: Both teams have potent offenses, clearly, but Andover is a much improved team since last they met. The Huskies and QB Landyn Nelson are averaging 55 points per game during their five-game winning streak and will test an Elk River defense that appears to be every bit the equal of the team's vaunted Power-T rushing attack on offense. The possibility of rain Friday favors Elk River. The pick: Elk River 45, Andover 38

about the writers

about the writers

David La Vaque

Reporter

David La Vaque is a high school sports reporter who has been the lead high school hockey writer for the Star Tribune since 2010. He is co-author of “Tourney Time,” a book about the history of Minnesota’s boys hockey state tournament published in 2020 and updated in 2024.

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Jim Paulsen

Reporter

Jim Paulsen is a high school sports reporter for the Star Tribune. 

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