Minnesota homeless numbers see first drop in years in latest count

Minnesota's homeless population recorded its first significant drop since statewide counts began in 1991, according to a triennial count by the Wilder Foundation released Monday.

The latest count found 9,312 people who were homeless in the state on one night in October, compared to a peak of 10,214 in the last count in 2012. With that 9 percent drop, the number of homeless people counted statewide dipped below the number recorded in 2009.

"It does seem like a promising finding that the numbers are going down a little bit," said study co-director Michelle Gerrard, who cautioned that the counts should be regarded as minimums, given the difficulty of locating homeless people living outside shelters. She said an improving economy played a large role in the drop.

"The folks that recover last are our most impoverished population," she said.

But the latest count reveals a sharp contrast between Hennepin County, where homelessness dropped by 15 percent over the last three years, and Ramsey County, where it jumped 14 percent. Ramsey County officials couldn't be reached Monday for comment on that jump but Gerrard said it may represent the fluidity of homeless migration across the region.

"We've really tried to prevent more families from coming back to shelter," said Mikkel Beckmen, director of the Minneapolis/Hennepin County Office to End Homelessness.

Another difference between the two counties is the share of the homeless population living outside shelters — about one in seven homeless people counted in Ramsey County, compared to about one in 10 in Hennepin County.

Progress back to prerecession levels of homelessness was hailed as "a really great thing" by Tim Marx, president and CEO of Catholic Charities, which operates shelters and other services in both central cities. "This is an affirmation of the strategies that we've been pursuing for many years," Marx said.

Catholic Charities opened its new Higher Ground facility four years ago in downtown Minneapolis, combining emergency shelter, pay-for-stay beds and more permanent supportive housing, and is expanding its Dorothy Day Center in St. Paul.

The number of homeless people counted in Minnesota had risen steadily each year except for a 1.3 percent drop just before the recession struck. Then the number of people counted as homeless rose by almost 25 percent between 2006 and 2009 as many lost homes to foreclosure or couldn't pay rent.

The recession hit just as the state and Hennepin County were beginning to implement carefully planned strategies intended to prevent homelessness and help people in shelters achieve self-sufficiency. Annual January counts conducted by counties showed some drop-off in homelessness between 2014 and 2015. Results of this year's counts are expected next month.

The Wilder Foundation's October count found children who are with their parents make up one-third of the state's homeless population. The number of those homeless children was down 12 percent. The much smaller group of unaccompanied minors, however, has skyrocketed by 46 percent since 2012. But officials discounted that as both the statistical gyrations of a relatively small population and a reflection of better involvement by schools in documenting that group.

One notable and more sizable increase was in the count of homeless people older than 54, which grew 8 percent, as the baby boomer population ages. But they're still the age group least likely to be homeless, given their share of the population.

The count includes people in homeless and domestic abuse shelters, plus those in transitional housing or living outside. Gerrard cautioned the accuracy of counts can depend on the availability of the roughly 1,200 volunteers who assisted in interviewing homeless people, data that is still being analyzed by Wilder.

Steve Brandt • 612-673-4438

Twitter: @brandtstrib