Minnesota leaders are up to the task of budget building

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Congratulations, Minnesota. Challenging times require steady, savvy leaders, and you’ve got them even though it may not always look that way when they’re busy debating, spinning and casting blame.

Not unexpectedly, we all learned last week that the state’s budget forecast is trending into the red. Minnesota’s budget surplus will soon flip to a projected deficit.

I’m telling you, though, the roof is not collapsing; our collective home is not going under water. The state is well positioned to withstand the deluge because of financial reserves, time to adjust and, most significantly, a platoon of talented DFL and Republican leaders at the Capitol.

The Legislature, especially the state House of Representatives, has looked messy in recent weeks with the dispute over leadership, the secret swearing-in, boycotting DFLers and a rescheduled special election.

It’s going to be OK, because the House and Senate leadership teams are smart, devoted and tremendously talented politicians who will get in a room and figure it out — eventually. This isn’t Washington, D.C. Minnesota legislators are required by law to produce a balanced two-year budget. They will.

Newly elected House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, and her counterpart, DFL Leader Melissa Hortman, Brooklyn Park, are singularly focused on the budget. They acknowledge as much nearly every time they enter or exit a room.

Both women and their supporting casts, Reps. Jamie Long, DFL-Minneapolis, Zack Stephenson, DFL-Coon Rapids, Harry Niska, R-Ramsey, and Paul Torkelson, R-Hanska, know their assignment and that they must make it work.

Over in the Senate, Majority Leader Erin Murphy, DFL-St. Paul, and Minority Leader Mark Johnson, R-East Grand Forks, also agree on the need to safely land the state budget, given that nearly 5.8 million people are counting on them to do just that.

Things are likely to still get turbulent. The Legislature has squarely entered the posturing phase of negotiations, the staking of divergent positions and attacks that may be off-putting to those unfamiliar with the grinder of public policy work.

However, as you watch the legislators in coming weeks, bear in mind that disagreements are part of the dialectic that should produce a better deal in the end. Minnesotans voted for a narrowly divided Legislature and dissent is part of the deal.

The bottom line: A projected surplus of $456 million will turn into a projected $6 billion deficit by 2028. Minnesota Star Tribune reporter Ryan Faircloth broke it all down in multiple news stories. The state also posted extensive details on the MMB’s website.

The numbers came from MMB Commissioner Erin Campbell, Budget Director Ahna Minge and State Economist Anthony Becker. The work was offered to present an accurate picture of oncoming financial stressors with a long-term focus.

Minnesota leaders have worked for decades to create an exhaustive approach to budget predictions that includes adjusting for inflation, a factor that numerous other states intentionally ignore. Our budget folks refuse to gloss over the ugly parts.

“We’ve chosen to highlight the uncertainty because it does feel significant in this moment,” Campbell said in a classic understatement.

Much of the budget uncertainty is triggered by President Donald Trump, who changes his mind about tariffs seemingly by the hour, and by his aide-de-camp, unelected bureaucrat Elon Musk, the guy who chose to wave a shiny new chain saw for show as he eviscerated the livelihoods of dedicated federal employees.

But in the midst of the unknown and the federal whiplash now roiling a nation, what gives me the most confidence is our legislative leadership. Hortman is a lawyer with extraordinary negotiating skill and policy savvy. Murphy is newer to the Senate leadership role, but certainly on par with Hortman.

Everyone at the Capitol seems to have a good relationship with Johnson, who is among the friendliest legislators at the Capitol on any given day. That stuff matters when the horse trading begins.

House Speaker Demuth and Niska are running the House like experts despite their rookie status. They’re also the rare leaders who stroll through the subterranean Capitol press room for much-welcomed chats with reporters.

But my overall bet for the surprise secret weapon of this session is state Rep. Paul Torkelson, the guy who stands barely noticed in the back of the room.

Torkelson is a 72-year-old Republican, Lutheran and corn, soybean and pork farmer from Hanska. He’s also the guy who eventually steps up and delivers the most memorable punchline of almost any gathering. He’s the one I’d bet on to keep everyone focused.