Minnesota Poll: Klobuchar with sizable lead over White in U.S. Senate race

Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar holds a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Royce White in a new poll of 800 likely Minnesota voters.

The Minnesota Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll conducted Sept. 16 to 18 found 51% of those interviewed said they plan to vote for Klobuchar, seeking her fourth term, compared with 40% for White, a former NBA player.

Eight percent remain undecided, and 1% said they’d probably opt for another candidate. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

(Scroll to the end of this article for full results for each question. Click here for the poll methodology, a demographic breakdown of the sample and a map of the poll regions.)

Klobuchar, who unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, fared well with women, younger people, voters with college degrees, residents of Ramsey and Hennepin counties and nonwhite people.

Poll respondent Brandon Shaw of Hopkins said he’s long supported Klobuchar and will continue to do so on Election Day. “She’s very solid and professional and she’s represented our state pretty well,” he said. “She’s not super extreme.”

Shaw, who works in retail, said Klobuchar is better equipped to deal with the polarization in politics currently gripping the nation. “People talk past each other; it’s detrimental to democracy,” he said.

Another respondent, Matt Thomas, a dairy farmer from Lakeville, ranks the economy and inflation among his top issues. He’s voting straight down the Republican ticket, including White, because he believes the party’s candidates will improve the economy.

“I’ve never been so broke as I have been in the last four years,” he said. “It’s ugly and disastrous.”

Since she was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, Klobuchar easily defeated Republican challengers in her two re-election campaigns with 60% or more of the vote.

Results of the latest poll suggest the Senate race might be closer than Klobuchar’s previous contests.

Geographically, White had more support in southern Minnesota — 48% compared to 42% for Klobuchar — with 9% undecided. Among likely voters in northern Minnesota, White led 50% to Klobuchar’s 44%, with 5% undecided.

The remaining poll respondents said they were supporting another candidate. Two third-party candidates are running for Senate: Joyce Lacey of the Independence-Alliance Party of Minnesota and Rebecca Whiting of the Libertarian Party.

Suburban voters — a critical constituency — were evenly split at 45% between the two candidates, with 8% undecided.

White, who lost the 2022 Republican primary for Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District seat, also did well with men, gaining support of 50% of the poll’s respondents, compared with 39% for Klobuchar, with 10% undecided.

Among likely voters who do not have a college degree, 46% said they support Klobuchar, with 45% backing White and 8% undecided. And independents appeared split in their choice for the Senate seat in the poll, with 44% supporting White and 43% supporting Klobuchar, but 12% remain undecided.

FULL RESULTS

The Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11 interviewed 800 Minnesota registered voters between Sept. 16 and Sept. 18, 2024. All indicated they are likely to vote in the November general election. Findings from questions about the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota are below. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Click here for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.