Minnesota Poll: The war in Gaza divides voters along party lines

Frustration with President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza drove tens of thousands of Minnesotans to cast presidential primary ballots for “uncommitted” in March — but a new Minnesota Poll found split opinions on the war, and Gaza is far from the top concern for most voters.

Overall, 41% of respondents said they approved of Israel’s military actions in Gaza since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas, and 44% disapproved. Just 1% of respondents named the war as the top issue influencing their vote for president.

The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll conducted last week found approval of Israel’s actions was a highly partisan issue, with 72% of Republican respondents approving of military actions Israel has taken in Gaza since the attacks, and 71% of Democrats disapproving. Political independents were split, and nearly a quarter of independents said they were not sure if they approved.

“I mostly support what the Biden administration is doing” about the war, said Zachary Nelson, one Minneapolis poll respondent who said he disapproved of Israel’s actions.

The poll of 800 likely Minnesota voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Nelson said he wanted the United States to do more for Palestinians and would prefer the United States offer less military aid to Israel. But Nelson said he thought Trump would send even more than Biden has — so the issue will not change how he votes in November.

Disapproval was concentrated in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, with 57% of respondents in those core metro counties saying they did not approve of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. But in all other areas of the Minnesota, including the other metro-area counties, nearly half of respondents said they approved.

Minnesotans of color were also far more likely to say they disapproved of Israel’s military actions — 59% compared to 42% of white Minnesotans.

Nearly a third of respondents said the government is doing too much to back Israel in the war, while 20% said the U.S. is doing too little. The largest proportion, 37%, said they see the right amount of support for Israel.

As for support for Palestinians, just 18% said the United States is doing too much. Thirty-four percent of respondents said the United States is doing too little for Palestinians, and 36% said they see the right amount of aid.

Across all three questions, significant numbers of respondents said they were not sure where they stood. Fifteen percent were unsure what they thought of Israel’s military actions, 10% did not know if they wanted the United States to provide more backing for Israel and 12% did not know if they wanted to see more aid for Palestinians.

Though a majority had opinions on support for Israel and Palestinians, the issue was far from the top concern for voters. Just 1% of poll respondents said the war was their top concern. The issue was about as important for likely Trump voters than likely Biden voters, with 2% of Trump voters citing the war as their top issue, compared to 1% of Biden voters.

Though many Democrats did not approve of Israel’s actions in Gaza, and wanted to see more support from the United States for Palestinians and less support for Israel, few said it was more important than the threat to democracy in America they think Donald Trump poses.

Nelson, the Minneapolis Democrat poll respondent, said he is primarily concerned with the cost of living, the authoritarian tendencies he sees in Trump, and now Trump’s convictions. The poll shows those are the top concerns for Minnesota voters.

For Robert Badger of Annandale, a Republican voter who was not a poll respondent but is part of a Star Tribune voter panel, questions about Israel are far from the most important issues in the presidential election.

“It’s an issue because people are protesting, but there’s not a significant issue in my mind over that,” Badger said.