Minnesota Republicans look to 2022 to break losing streak for governor

Republicans nationally are gearing up for a conservative wave they say will deliver races up and down the ballot next fall.

In Minnesota, conservatives hope they'll have a candidate positioned to ride that potential wave all the way to the governor's office, despite a state party in turmoil, a major financial disadvantage to Democrats and a losing streak for governor that's stretched on for more than a decade.

"If you go by tradition and mood, it's going to be a very good Republican year," said Marty Seifert, a former Republican House leader who ran for governor in 2010. "It's going to be a fantastic opportunity for whoever the nominee is, but never underestimate the Republican Party's ability to mess things up."

Despite potential midterm headwinds, Democrats point to strong approval ratings during the pandemic for DFL Gov. Tim Walz, who is widely expected to seek a second term. More than a half dozen Republican candidates are angling to be the nominee, and they're running on crime rates and COVID-19 restrictions, trying to tap into anxiety over possible vaccine mandates after a year largely under pandemic lockdown.

This time, they hope their messaging and candidate are enough to break through in the suburbs, where they need to make inroads to counter Democrats' advantage in the populous urban cores. It's part of what's kept Republicans from winning not just the governor's office, but any statewide office since 2006.

"The definition of insanity is just keep doing the same old thing and expecting a different result," said Republican governor candidate Scott Jensen during a break from politicking outside of his booth at the Minnesota State Fair. "I think we need to run a candidate that doesn't like politics."

The one-term state senator and family physician from Chaska has been campaigning for months and putting his medical credentials — not his political experience — front and center. He said he's approaching $1 million raised since March and he's gained traction with the conservative base over his messaging against COVID-19 restrictions, mask and vaccine mandates and concerns about vaccinations for children 12 to 15 years old.

He thinks his position on vaccines has prompted the state's medical board to take another look at his license, and his statements on COVID-19 have gotten him banned from Facebook advertising and kicked off the social media platform TikTok — twice.

"We're broken," Jensen said. "You can quibble about the politics, but this COVID thing has fractured our neighborhoods, our churches, our businesses, our communities."

Neil Shah, a dermatologist from North Oaks and Republican candidate for governor, is also focusing his message so far against COVID-19 restrictions and said he's had threats of losing federal funding at his practice for not requiring vaccines for staff. Both Jensen and Shah appeared in August at a "medical freedom" rally against mask mandates and vaccine requirements that drew roughly 2,000 people to the Capitol.

Republicans are potentially backing themselves in a corner with messaging around the vaccine, said former Republican Party deputy chairman Michael Brodkorb, especially since more than 71% of Minnesotans 16 and older have already received at least one dose of the vaccine. That number is validation for Walz's handling of the pandemic, he said.

"The Republicans are messaging toward the 29% that haven't gotten a shot, rather than the 71% that have gotten the vaccine," he said. "I don't know any political strategist who would look at that number and tell you to campaign to the 29%."

Jensen said COVID has given his campaign traction early on but he's also going to talk about reining in spending, about voter integrity and public safety. State Sen. Michelle Benson, R-Ham Lake, jumped into the governor's race last week and is touting a broader message on pocketbook issues such as tax cuts, classrooms and crime rates.

But she senses momentum building among conservative voters who are concerned about the idea of a vaccine mandate. Benson said she would have handled the pandemic differently from Walz, keeping classrooms open and taking a county-by-county approach to managing cases.

"We had counties shut down that had zero cases, and that caused a lot of unnecessary stress for those businesses," she said. "Our schools should have been open last fall, elementary students should have been safely in school. That would have fundamentally changed this pandemic for families."

Republican Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka stepped down from his leadership post last week, a first step of an expected run for governor. He said he'll make a decision after Labor Day.

COVID-19 won't be the major issue for voters by next fall, Gazelka said, it will be public safety. He's talking to voters about the need to increase law enforcement levels and criticizing Walz for his handling of the unrest that followed George Floyd's killing. Republicans used images of the civil unrest and slogans like defund the police to go after swing district Democrats in 2020.

"People don't feel safe like they used to. If you're in outstate they still feel safe out there, but they don't want to come to Minneapolis and St. Paul. That's a big shift," said Gazelka, of East Gull Lake. "We need to change that narrative. Minneapolis is a beautiful city, but if people don't feel safe they're not coming."

Other announced candidates include Kasson business owner Mike Marti and Lexington mayor Mike Murphy.

Minnesota Republicans were energized in 2016 after Donald Trump came within 1.5 percentage points of winning Minnesota, but in 2020 he lost to Joe Biden in Minnesota by more than 7% of the vote, turning out voters in rural areas but again struggling to break through in the suburbs.

And 14 months out from the election, the Republican Party is leaderless and low on cash, after Jennifer Carnahan suddenly resigned amid a ballooning scandal that she created a toxic workplace. The party will elect a new chair on Oct. 2, but for now governor candidates must show they can raise cash on their own.

"We're going to reach farther than we ever have before, and we're starting that already," Benson said last week. "I think the base of the Republican Party is really energized and ready to go. If the party can harness that energy and build a campaign team, we're going to do really well."

University of Minnesota Duluth political science professor Cynthia Rugeley said so far, she sees the Republican field using messaging that's again trying to motivate Trump's base in Minnesota. Fear is a powerful motivator, she said, but it's unclear how that message is playing in the suburbs.

"They are using the same issues and the same playbook, but I really wonder if the Trump effect is going to be as strong a year from now as it was a year ago," she said. "They all seem to be playing that game."

Briana Bierschbach • 651-925-5042

Twitter: @bbierschbach