Twins 2024 prediction: Different vibes, but still AL Central champs

Every season stands on its own, each one a different story with new characters, altered narratives and changing cliffhangers. This baseball season will show us that again, but the end will be the same: The Twins will be American League Central champions for the fourth time in six seasons, with a record this summer of 88-74.

They won’t be carried by a rotation that had two of the top starters in the league, yet they have made sufficient improvements elsewhere despite infuriating their fanbase by slashing $30 million from their payroll.

We already know that the departed Sonny Gray, last season’s best player from a WAR (wins above replacement) standpoint, was not adequately replaced by a team that was 87-75. We also know that closer supreme Jhoan Duran will miss the first few weeks of the season because of an oblique strain. Right off the bat, the best starter and the best finisher from last summer won’t be lining up along the third-base line with the rest of the boys on Thursday when they face Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium.

That’s why my victory total is not in the 90s. It probably would be if Duran was ready from the start. And Caleb Thielbar and Justin Topa also will start the season on the injured list.

When everyone is in place, the bullpen will be one of the best in the league. Topa, Brock Stewart and Jorge Alcala all throw above-average fastballs. Griffin Jax is right there too, and his sweeper is a filthy pitch. Behind Thielbar are fellow lefties Steven Okert and Kody Funderburk. They have enough depth to get by with Jax and Stewart pitching in the ninth for a month or so. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli might play the ninth by matchups too.

Duran’s injury is an oblique strain, not an elbow or shoulder issue. When he returns, make sure your smartphones are charged up to flash when he enters the ninth inning of games at Target Field as roaring fire is displayed on screens throughout the stadium. I am trusting that the Twins have not underestimated the injury or that he doesn’t have additional issues.

Twins relievers led baseball with 9.67 strikeouts per nine innings last season and were fourth with just 2.75 walks per nine innings. And this year’s group could be better? Ponder that.

This is one of a few reasons why the blow from Gray’s departure will be absorbed.

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Pablo López is the undisputed ace of the staff and is one of the top 20 starters in the game. Bailey Ober will take another step forward after throwing a career-high 144⅓ innings last season. The Twins will get more of the first-half Joe Ryan last season than the second-half, when he posted a 6.62 ERA. Chris Paddack is a wild card after missing most of last season but he’ll at least be average. The two-time Tommy John surgery club will be rooting for him.

Louie Varland gets his shot to stick in the rotation after Anthony DeSclafani’s elbow injury. If he ends up as the weak link of the rotation, my reply will be, “whose fifth starter isn’t?”

A potential red flag is depth. They were durable last season — their top five starters made 85.8% of their starts — and they need the same good fortune. If not, here comes Simeon Woods-Richardson, Brent Headrick, Matt Canterino, David Festa, or the return of Randy Dobnak. I expect the Twins to look to sign an unemployed veteran or seek a trade before the deadline to bolster depth. But the improved bullpen is in a better position to bail out a struggling starter.

There’s no doubt it’s comforting to have two high-quality starters in a rotation, and the Twins don’t have that this season. It also is comforting to have some guys who can swing the sticks. The Twins do have that.

There are injury issues here, too, mostly with All-Star/platinum-glove center fielder Byron Buxton, who was limited to designated hitter duty. He’s not a DH. If Buck can play 120 games, it will turbocharge the Twins offense. Carlos Correa is healthy following a battle with plantar fasciitis and will get off to a fast start. Mix in the rookies who bailed out the offense during the second half last season — Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner — and the runs will flow. The Twins scored 696 runs in 2022 and 778 runs last season. The upward trajectory will continue this season.

More offense and a shutdown bullpen can support a rotation that is not as strong as a season ago — especially in the AL Central. The Twins have more talent, a deeper lineup and will have a better bullpen than any of their rivals.

So read this now and believe me later: the Twins are winning 88 games this season.