RandBall: In a complicated Twins offseason, where does Carlos Correa stand?

This is not a list of teams the Twins should consider as potential trade partners for a Carlos Correa deal, mainly because the list can be “zero” if Correa likes it here and wants to see things through a complicated offseason and transition time for the organization.

As part of the six-year, $200 million deal signed before the 2023 season, Correa has a full no-trade clause. This is more of an acknowledgement of all that has changed since he signed that deal than a call to action.

But, phew, those changes. The Twins’ payroll was around $160 million in 2023, when Correa helped them win a weak AL Central and snap a forever-long playoff losing streak.

The payroll was slashed by $30 million last year (a considerable factor, even if the Twins don’t want to admit it, in that depth problems that led to their 12-27 collapse) and figures to be in the same ballpark in 2025.

Also next year: the Twins will start a new TV path that will (at least initially) pay them far less than their old one. Oh, and by the way, the team just changed its front office structure and is in the midst of a sale after four decades of Pohlad ownership.

That’s more than enough to ask for a recalibration of where Correa fits into the franchise’s long-term plans, as La Velle E. Neal III and I tackled on Thursday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

My unfortunate conclusion: At current spending levels (subject to ownership change, I acknowledge), the Twins will have a very hard time building a winning roster that includes Correa. But they would also have a hard time winning without him if a trade ended up being consummated.

Correa was the Twins’ best player in 2024 — arguably both their best hitter and best fielder. It is not a coincidence that the season fell apart while he was dealing with plantar fasciitis. His absence left a void at the plate, in the field and the clubhouse. Trading him would make the Twins a lesser team, and there’s no way they would get back equal value.

But Correa’s salary jumps to $36 million next season. Pablo Lopez jumps from $8 million to $21.5 million. Byron Buxton makes $15. Add it up and that’s about 56% of a $130 million payroll. Correa himself takes up nearly 28%.

There is no meaningful way to upgrade the roster and maintain a $130 million payroll. La Velle argued that the Twins should keep Correa because he thinks they can compete in 2025 and beyond even if there aren’t major upgrades. The Twins seem inclined to believe this, too.

Let’s just say I’m more skeptical that there’s enough pitching or hitting to win.

The best thing that could happen? A new owner buys the team and runs it more like a vanity project than a hardline business and restores payroll into the $165 million range.

Short of that, there just aren’t good or easy answers.