Twins won't have an easy time catching Guardians in AL Central stretch run

The team is hot, but they've been inconsistent, they face a tough schedule and they are missing key parts.

August 31, 2022 at 5:27AM
Jake Cave (8) celebrated with Twins teammate Gilberto Celestino after hitting a second-inning home run Tuesday night at Target Field. (Carlos Gonzalez, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

We're at that time of the season where starters might be asked to pitch deeper in games just as often as relievers will be summoned earlier to keep deficits from getting out of hand.

This is when key players are needed to step up in the heat of a pennant race — or when the last man on a roster can be a hero.

This is when intradivisional matchups dominate the schedule — but it's not always who you play, but when you play them.

It's time to see who wants to win the AL Central.

The Twins, behind a grand slam by Nick Gordon in the fifth inning, turned back Boston 10-5 on Tuesday and can finish off a three-game sweep on Wednesday. Once trailing AL Central Division-leading Cleveland by four games, the Twins have won five consecutive games for the first time since May and have reduced the Guardians' lead to 1½ games.

After Wednesday, they will embark on a seemingly insurmountable task over their final 33 games:

Catch the Guardians.

The Twins have not sustained good baseball since May. Their offense runs hot and cold; they have scored more runs than anyone in the division but have been shut out 12 times. They are staring at a tricky schedule. Most of all, they are missing key parts.

Byron Buxton remains out indefinitely with a hip injury due to compensating for knee soreness. Righthander Tyler Mahle remains out after leaving his most recent start with diminished velocity.

The Twins enter the final weeks of the regular season with these things going against them, and I don't like their chances.

Although Buxton is batting just .224, he leads the team with an .833 OPS. Good things happen when he touches the ball. The outfield is where batted balls go to die when he's in center. His absence, whether it's for few days or a couple more weeks, is a blow.

Mahle came to the Twins a month ago touted for being able to get through a batting order more than three times. He could be back in a week, but it's likely that manager Rocco Baldelli will handle him more carefully. The Twins will be fortunate if his sudden dip in velocity was just one odd day.

Dylan Bundy has been effective lately, but the Twins need more. I foresee a month of September during which, when Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray aren't pitching, the bullpen will be tasked to cover 12 to 15 outs more times than it can handle.

But then, the Twins have been resilient all summer. Nine players are out for the season. Reliever Emilio Pagan has been a mess. Longtime reliever Tyler Duffey was released. Before he landed on the injured list, Buxton's workload was monitored more closely than gas prices.

And yet, the Twins entered Wednesday in the hunt. On Tuesday, their first six hits went for extra bases and they belted three home runs, including Gordon's game-changer.

"Our team has played through a lot this year and has never made an excuse along the way," Baldelli said. "You're always looking forward. You're always looking to see what you have to do next. You're never satisfied, and I think our guys have been that, through it all."

What's ahead for the Twins? They look to chase down Cleveland while holding off the White Sox and win the division without relying on a wild-card berth.

They have 12 games left against teams with winning records. The Guardians have 15 and the White Sox 19. Six of the Twins' final nine games are against the White Sox. The Guardians have a stretch, because of rescheduling, in which they play 19 games in 18 days. But they end with six consecutive home games against Kansas City. Will the Royals pack their spoiler shoes for the trip?

I doubt the Twins, 1-5 in one-run games against the Guardians, will emerge as division champions. But these final weeks of the regular season will be wild.

about the writer

about the writer

La Velle E. Neal III

Columnist

La Velle E. Neal III is a sports columnist for the Minnesota Star Tribune who previously covered the Twins for more than 20 years.

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