If the regular season ended today, the Twins would win the American League Central, take the No. 3 seed in the AL playoff bracket and face the sixth seed in the wild card series.
Neal: Twins will win AL Central, and here's their optimal opponent ...
Breaking down four potential playoff opponents and landing on one particular team that the Twins could beat — and break their ugly postseason losing streak while they're at it.
September 10, 2023 at 1:26AM
And that's exactly what's going to happen. Stick a fork in Cleveland. The Guardians are done.
The Twins have a healthy lead, an easier schedule in the final three-plus weeks, they are playing better and they're getting healthy.
It's time to look ahead to the playoffs. Which team should Twins fans hope is the first-round opponent? Or, more specifically for this franchise, which team gives the Twins their best chance to halt their 18-game postseason losing streak? And, if we can dare to dream, which opponent could the Twins defeat in a best-of-three wild-card series and advance?
Those answers come after considering the Twins' struggles against lefthanded starters. The Twins are better equipped to face lefties now that Royce Lewis is out of the trainer's room, but their .714 OPS is still 20th in baseball and their .236 batting average against lefties is 27th. Let's also consider road record for opponents, as the Twins would have home-field advantage in the wild-card round if they do indeed capture the No. 3 seed.
Boston, seven games out of a wild card spot, is not included in this consideration. And don't expect the Rays to relinquish their strong position in the AL East, not with that offense. That leaves four possible first-round opponents to consider here: Seattle, Texas, Houston and Toronto. Here they are, in reverse order of preference:
4. Houston. Bad memories of the 2020 postseason with this one. The Twins stopped hitting, again, against the Astros, Byron Buxton suddenly came down with concussion symptoms and Alex Kirilloff made his major league debut out of necessity. Shivers. The Astros entered the weekend with a half-game lead over Seattle in the AL West, so it could be a wild ride to the finish. Lefthander Framber Valdez fronts the rotation, so that's a problem for the Twins. Justin Verlander, 22-10 in 40 career starts against the Twins, was added before the trade deadline. The heart of the batting order is formidable. There's only one other lefthander on the 40-man, which helps. But they are road warriors, going 45-27. Hard pass.
3. Toronto. The Blue Jays have two lefties in the rotation now that Hyun Jin Ryu is healthy and pitching effectively. They could have two lefties in the bullpen as well. Shortstop Bo Bichette is getting healthy and will boost a middle-of-the-road offense. The teams split six games this season, four of them decided by two or fewer runs. In the end, too many lefties.
2. Texas. It's tempting to make the Rangers the top choice, since we watched the Twins take five of seven games from them and look good while doing it. The Twins might have caught Texas at the right time, though. It's one of the top five offenses in baseball, especially when Josh Jung is healthy. The Rangers can throw several lefties at the Twins, although some have struggled in those situations. And Texas is hovering around .500 on the road. That makes the Rangers a good candidate. It's a close call, but my pick for the optimal first-round opponent for the Twins is …
1. Seattle. The Mariners just went 21-6 in August, shot past the Rangers and are breathing down the Astros in the AL West. Julio Rodriguez is back to being fabulous, and the bullpen is steady. But being hot in August or September doesn't mean it will carry into October (see Twins, 2006). And Seattle doesn't have a lefty in its rotation. The Mariners won the season series 4-3 against the Twins, but there was a July 25 game during which the Twins bullpen blew a four-run lead in the eighth. I wouldn't mind seeing a fully healthy Twins lineup face the Mariners, whose 5.40 ERA against them was the worst against any AL opponent. In 15 career starts against Seattle, Sonny Gray is 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA. That alone could mean the end of the postseason losing streak.
Twins fans, here's what you should be saying all month: Bring on the Mariners.
By adding Marco Raya and Travis Adams to the 40-man roster, the team made certain they won’t lose them in three weeks.
