The Twins were thrilled when Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee fell to their No. 8 spot in last year's MLB draft, but they should add somebody Sunday who will challenge him for the top-rated prospect in the organization.
Who will the Twins take with the No. 5 selection in Sunday's MLB draft?
Draft analysts seem to agree there are five elite players in the draft, and Twins scouting director Sean Johnson says his staff has been considering 10 possible prospects with their pick.
July 7, 2023 at 3:44AM
With the No. 5 overall pick, and three of the top 49 picks, the Twins are in a position to significantly improve their farm system. The draft begins at 6 p.m. Sunday in Seattle, site of Tuesday's All-Star Game.
The Twins, who jumped up eight spots in the first round through the league's inaugural draft lottery, are in an enviable position because the consensus among draft pundits is there are five elite players in the draft class: LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, LSU pitcher Paul Skenes, Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford, Indiana high school outfielder Max Clark and North Carolina prep outfielder Walker Jenkins.
Those aren't the only players the Twins are considering with their top pick — scouting director Sean Johnson said this week around 10 names were being discussed internally — but at least one of the five will be available at their pick. ESPN draft analyst Kiley McDaniel says all five players will rank inside his top 30 prospects once they enter the minor leagues.
"I mean, we're excited just to be here," Johnson said. "We were picking No. 13 a few months ago, and now we're up where we're at."
The latest mock drafts from FanGraphs and ESPN link the Twins to Jenkins, while MLB.com projects Clark.
The Twins could take whichever one of the five falls to their pick, but there is some industry chatter they might prefer a college bat above Clark and/or Jenkins. Their analytical draft model, run by scouting research manager Ezra Wise, is factored into their draft decisions.
"In every draft there are a few college bats you really believe in, have a lot of confidence in, based on their track record," Johnson said. "If you can put up numbers in the SEC, against that kind of pitching, that's usually a good signal that you're going to do pretty well as a pro."
Even if the Twins lean toward college hitters, which Johnson noted they "resonate well with our model and have for a while," they still took a high school pitcher with their top pick in 2021 (Chase Petty) and were reportedly interested in a high school bat (Cam Collier) before Lee slid to No. 8 overall last year.
Johnson believes this draft class is especially deep with high school hitters. College pitching is a bit thinner than most years, particularly lefthanders.
Along with the No. 5 pick, the Twins have another draft advantage. They are allotted $14.35 million to spend on their 11 selections inside of the first 10 rounds, the fourth-largest bonus pool among all teams. It gives them flexibility if one of the top five players surprisingly drops, and it can help them entice a high school player to sign with them over a college commitment. The Rangers, as an example, have the No. 4 overall pick, but $9.93 million to spend on their picks in the first 10 rounds.
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"Just having that option alone allows us to think outside the box a little more than in years when we've had a smaller pool," Johnson said. "We've got the big pool, with high picks, so it's really a fun environment for us to think about certain players, depending on how things unfold."
With a strong draft, the Twins can replenish some of the prospect capital they lost at last year's trade deadline from the Tyler Mahle and Jorge López deals.
"The more we look at past drafts, they never really go like you think they're going to go," Johnson said. "There is always a surprise or two in there. Our focus is just to stay with our internal process, line them up how we see them, and just be ready for every scenario that happens whether it gets played how people think it's going to be played or whether things go off script."
Recent Twins first-round picks
2022: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
2021: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (New Jersey)
2020: Aaron Sabato, 1B, North Carolina
2019: Keoni Cavaco, SS, Eastlake HS (California)
2018: Trevor Larnach, OF, Oregon State
2017: Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra Catholic HS (California)
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