Twins offseason primer: Free agents, arbitration eligibles, Rule 5 candidates and possible trades

Major League Baseball is a copycat league, and the Los Angeles Dodgers created the latest formula for winning a World Series title. The blueprint includes starting with a roster that features several future Hall of Famers and then committing more than $1 billion to the top free agents.

OK, maybe that won’t be the path the Twins or almost any other team follow. But the offseason officially started Thursday, and 29 teams are chasing the Dodgers for the opportunity to hold up a trophy and set up a parade route.

The challenge for the Twins is bouncing back after a six-week collapse that pushed them out of the playoff picture amid little payroll flexibility. The Twins ended the season with their payroll sitting around $130 million, and even if they keep it at a similar level, they begin the winter with an estimated $126 million in payroll commitments because of salary raises.

Here is a primer on the decisions facing the Twins:

Free agents (4): RF Max Kepler, 1B Carlos Santana, LHP Caleb Thielbar and RHP Anthony DeSclafani.

Kepler spent 10 seasons with the Twins, the longest-tenured player on the roster, and he acknowledged his time with the organization was likely over at the end of the season. He struggled offensively last season and missed time with a couple of knee injuries.

Santana was the Twins’ best free agent signing last offseason. He is a favorite to win a Gold Glove at first base, and he led the club in homers (23) and RBI (71). He’s one of the most durable players in the league and he should receive interest from a few teams for a one-year deal.

Thielbar, 37, is coming off the worst season of his career. DeSclafani never threw a pitch for the Twins, requiring Tommy John surgery during spring training.

Contract options (3): INF Kyle Farmer, OF Manuel Margot and RHP Jorge Alcala.

Farmer and Margot had their club options declined Friday, which was expected. The Twins paid Farmer, who didn’t hit well until September, a $250,000 buyout in lieu of his $6.25 million option. Margot had a $12 million club option with a $2 million buyout, and the Tampa Bay Rays are responsible for paying the buyout from an initial trade last winter.

Alcala’s situation is more complex. The Twins have a $1.5 million option with a $55,000 buyout. If his option is declined, he remains under club control as an arbitration-eligible player. MLB Trade Rumors projects he could command a similar salary in arbitration.

Arbitration-eligible players (11): RHP Bailey Ober, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Jhoan Duran, RHP Griffin Jax, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Michael Tonkin, RHP Justin Topa, C Ryan Jeffers, 3B Royce Lewis, UT Willi Castro, and LF Trevor Larnach.

Castro, who is eligible to become a free agent after the 2025 season, is expected to command around $6 million, the largest salary in this group. The All-Star utility man slumped in the second half of the season, but he possesses the most defensive versatility on the club, remained healthy the last two years and is one of the few base stealing threats on the roster.

The Twins are expected to keep almost all their arbitration-eligible players, but they will have decisions to make on relievers Tonkin and Topa. Tonkin is out of minor league options, and he was designated for assignment four times last season. Topa missed most of the 2024 season because of injuries, though he was viewed as a potential late-inning depth option when the Twins traded for him.

Alex Kirilloff would have been eligible for arbitration, but he announced his retirement Friday after a season-ending back injury.

Adding prospects to the 40-man roster

Marco Raya, a fourth-round pick in 2020, is expected to be added to the 40-man roster by the Nov. 19 deadline to protect him from being taken in the annual Rule 5 Draft. Raya, 22, pitched a career-high 97⅔ innings this year and finished the season with one start at Class AAA. There are some durability concerns, but he features high spin offspeed pitches with a 96-mph fastball.

Other prospects who could be added to the 40-man roster include righthanded starter Travis Adams, catcher/outfielder Ricardo Olivar and outfielder Kala’i Rosario, who returned to the Arizona Fall League for a second year.

Trade candidates

Starting pitcher Chris Paddack and catcher Christian Vázquez could hear their names in a lot of trade rumors this winter because they’ll make a combined $17.5 million and they’ll both reach free agency after the 2025 season.

Castro is a trade candidate because of his projected salary and proximity to free agency, too. The Twins still view themselves as a team that should contend for the pennant, but they don’t have a clear-cut starter at first base, and they’ll need help in their outfield.