Twins lose again vs. baseball’s best, but they can turn trend around

The Twins missed an opportunity Tuesday night. An opportunity for them to take the first two games of their three-game series against baseball’s best team and prove they have evolved since the beginning of the season.

Twins righthander Simeon Woods Richardson held Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler to a stalemate until he left after six scoreless innings. The Twins loaded the bases in the eighth, but pinch hitter Ryan Jeffers tapped to third base to end the inning. Then reliever Jhoan Duran, using his fastball for only eight of the 27 pitches he threw, yielded three runs in the ninth.

This adds fuel to the criticism that the Twins can’t beat top teams. On Monday, they entered the series vs. the Phillies 2-19 against the other five teams with better records than them, including 0-14 against Baltimore, Cleveland and the New York Yankees.

A baseball season is a long, arduous grind. Once trends are established, it’s hard to believe they can be changed.

I expect the Twins to change that narrative. A closer look at the boxscores against the teams with better records proves the Twins were competitive in many of those games, losing eight by two or fewer runs. They have been walked off twice. The bullpen imploded Sunday against Milwaukee and Duran had a clunker Tuesday, but the Twins’ bullpen has been above average throughout the season.

On Monday, starter Bailey Ober was stellar, the Twins led by one run late and added on to pick up a 7-2 win. That means they still have a chance to take the series with a victory Wednesday afternoon — albeit with an emergency starter — and show they are not a cruiserweight in a heavyweight division.

(The Twins’ lack of success against the Yankees is an outlier. Six games, six losses. Outscored 36-12. That might require spiritual assistance.)

Here is what Twins fans should embrace during the remaining portion of the season: It is not who you play but when you play them. And the Twins have deployed two different offenses this season.

Through 20 games, the Twins were batting .195. Through their first 64 games, they batted .229 with a .692 on base-plus-slugging percentage. They faced five of those top six teams when their offense was offensive.

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Something clicked following the Twins’ 4-0 loss at Pittsburgh on June 8. They batted .296 with an .852 OPS over their next 35 games. They led baseball in slugging percentage in June. Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda thrived offensively. Willi Castro played his way onto the All-Star Game roster. Royce Lewis got healthy and was their best hitter before a strained groin sent him back to the injured list. Brooks Lee has cooled off after hitting .364 over his first eight games in the majors but has bags of potential. The Twins entered Tuesday’s game sixth in baseball in runs scored.

This more recent version of the Twins does not go 0-14 against the Yankees, Orioles and Guardians.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli needs more from his team against the better teams, no doubt. Better execution. A few clutch hits. He has seen it during the last month-plus of games when the offense came alive. Now it must be sustained.

“We’ll learn how good we are over the course of the full season,” Baldelli said before Tuesday’s game.

We have learned already that, when healthy, they have one of the best lineups in baseball. Lewis has begun a rehabilitation stint and is close to returning. Miranda will begin his stint Wednesday. Correa must be careful with his second bout of plantar fasciitis in two seasons.

In addition to health, the Twins need a starting pitcher before the July 31 trade deadline — even more important following Chris Paddack’s injury — and a reliever because that group has never been fully healthy.

A healthy offense and reliable pitching will put the Twins on a path to catch American League Central-leading Cleveland, which has the toughest remaining schedule in baseball. And they simultaneously can hold off Kansas City, which is trying to move up in class. Because the current Twins are much better than the early-season version.