Twins 2024: Who stays and who goes? A player-by-player roster breakdown

A look at the future of players on the Twins roster heading into the offseason.

Jorge Alcala, age 28

He has pitched only 31 innings at any level in two years, thanks to elbow surgery and a forearm fracture. Is he a big-leaguer? Five years in, Twins still don't know.

Contract: Arbitration eligible (second year)

2024 outlook: Worth another try, but it's getting harder to project any significant contributions.

Jordan Balazovic, 25

Rebounded, sort of, from atrocious 2022 and a broken jaw in spring training, and had a solid first month in the majors before fading.

2024 outlook: His fastball plays, so worth another look. But his days as a starter are probably over, making roster spot more tenuous.

Matt Canterino, 25

Missed entire season while recovering from 2022 elbow surgery, but strikeout-ninja second-round pick is still in Twins' long-term plans.

Contract: Minor league

2024 outlook: Assuming he comes to spring training healthy again, expect him in St. Paul by midseason; after that, who knows?

Made a dozen appearances before breaking down; his career could be over. His Twins career almost certainly is.

Contract: Arbitration eligible (first year)

2024 outlook: Looking for someone to give him and his new elbow a tryout.

Randy Dobnak, 28

Made 26 starts for Saints, and while it's hard to picture him getting another shot with Twins, there's no shame in being a Triple-A icon.

2024 outlook: Making set-for-life money while becoming one of most popular Saints ever.

Jhoan Duran, 25

By most statistical measures, he wasn't quite as good as 2022 — but it didn't feel that way, did it? Throwing 104 mph, converting 27 of 32 save chances, he's Twins' most feared weapon.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Lots more ninth innings, perhaps an All-Star trip, and a daily communal prayer by Twins fans: Stay healthy, stay healthy.

Rose from Wichita to St. Paul to Target Field, and was terrific at all three — one run allowed and 19 strikeouts in 12 late-season innings with Twins.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: He's moved to the front of the line to inherit Caleb Thielbar's job as high-leverage lefty when the time comes.

Sonny Gray, 33

Earnestly intense, he seemed to will himself to best season by a Twins starter since Johan Santana. How is it possible in this era to give up only eight homers in 184 innings?

2024 outlook: Getting (but barely noticing) a heartfelt ovation upon his first visit back to Target Field with whoever outbids the Twins for his twilight years.

Brent Headrick, 25

Rushed to the majors before he was ready, homer-prone lefthander still gained experience that should help when he's summoned next.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Back in St. Paul, returning to starting role and awaiting another emergency call.

Mastery of the strike zone is a growing problem — 36 walks in 57 Class AAA innings set off alarms — but he's still among youngest players at his level.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: He'll get another shot at taming his wildness, but he'll probably have to do it without a 40-man roster spot.

Griffin Jax, 28

Waxed and waned like the weather, oddly hittable in May and August but untouchable in setup role the rest of the time. At the top of his game in the playoffs.

2024 outlook: He's earned his manager's trust for high-leverage assignments, but don't be surprised if other teams inquire about his availability.

Dallas Keuchel, 35

Comeback seemed like a vanity project at first, but it turned out to be pure nostalgia: He missed baseball. And six perfect innings vs. Pirates was one of season's wackiest days.

Contract: Free agent

2024 outlook: If someone will give him and his 86-mph fastball a contract, he'll take it. C'mon, wouldn't you?

Endured early-season whining about Luis Arraez trade, mastered his new sweeper, and emerged as a Twins stateman and future ace; his 234 strikeouts were most since Santana in 2007.

Contract: Owed $8 million in 2024, first year of four-year, $73.5 million extension

2024 outlook: Making his second straight Opening Day start.

Kenta Maeda, 35

Gradually learned to trust his new elbow, posted 2.81 ERA in September, and leaves Minnesota with the nagging feeling his next three years will be better than the last three.

2024 outlook: His next contract won't be the incentive-laden bargain his last one was. It won't be with the Twins, either.

Tyler Mahle, 29

From mid-May on, after tearing elbow ligament in his fifth start, he remained a Twin only in the sense that they paid his medical bills.

Contract: Free agent

2024 outlook: Rehab, recovery and a one-year contract somewhere else, while hoping to repeat free agency a year from now.

Lost: a young pitcher's confidence, after following a breakthrough rookie season with 27 walks in 42 innings and an ERA that more than doubled to 5.31.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Assuming his forearm pain doesn't require surgery to fix, Twins will encourage him to forget 2023 and start anew.

Bailey Ober, 28

A classic "but for one or two bad pitches" starter, Ober was battered by home runs. Twins limited his workload, and he appeared stronger in September.

2024 outlook: Full-fledged member of the rotation from Day 1, with something to prove.

Oliver Ortega, 27

A fungible reliever with fungible health, he never outpitched the label "waiver claim" before shutting down early with back pain.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: From the waiver wire he came, via the waiver wire he shall depart, shortly.

Due credit to perseverance — how many players would return to pitch five innings one season after their second Tommy John surgery?

Contract: Owed $2.525 million in 2024, second year of three-year deal.

2024 outlook: If postseason encore was any indication, he's a favorite for spot in rotation.

Emilio Pagán, 32

High-leverage stints were far less calamitous than a year ago, but with five blown leads, he never quite reached total trustworthiness, either.

2024 outlook: He'll be looking to double his $3.5 million salary, which likely leads him elsewhere.

Joe Ryan, 27

12 quality starts before All-Star break, two after it — Twins have to hope he was injured, because that's fixable. It had been 16 years since a Twin gave up 32 homers.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Three bad months doesn't scuttle two good years, so he'll be in rotation again.

In an odd season, filling an innings-eating role without actually being given innings, he was fine but unremarkable. Won't last long putting 1.5 runners on base per inning, though.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Watching games in St. Paul bullpen until Twins need his roster spot.

Brock Stewart, 32

A sensational scrapheap discovery, he was charged with only two runs all season — but also missed three months because of an elbow injury.

2024 outlook: As long as he's throwing 99 mph, he'll have a job in the Twins bullpen for the foreseeable future.

Caleb Thielbar, 36

Only 12 pitchers have made more relief appearances in Twins history, and after slashing his walk rate, few have been as effective at his age. But oblique strain limited him to 30 innings.

Contract: Arbitration eligible (fourth year)

2024 outlook: The Twins' history with age 37+ pitchers isn't good, but there's no reason to cut ties yet.

After making clear how much he doesn't want to be a reliever, he also made it clear how good he is at it, allowing only two runs in 12 increasingly important innings.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: If he cuts his home-run rate (16 in 68 innings), he's a nice fit at back end of Twins rotation.

Josh Winder, 27

Another pitcher caught on the St. Paul shuttle, relegated to long relief on a team that rarely uses it. Didn't make a single start in 2023, a bad omen.

2024 outlook: Twins haven't found a role for him, so it's hard to see why they'd keep him around.

Simeon Woods Richardson, 23

Another young arm that needs to be tamed, he walked 61 hitters in 113 innings at St. Paul, making it hard to project a big-league role.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Gets another chance until the roster spot becomes more valuable than the arm.

Validated the Twins' tandem-catching strategy by taking a huge step forward at the plate and behind it. Played 96 games, yet still had highest WAR (3.3) among Twins position players.

Contract: Arbitration eligible (first year)

2024 outlook: He'd like to raise his .207 average with runners in scoring position, but simply repeating 2023 would be fine with Twins, too.

Christian Vázquez, 33

Pitchers swear by him, and that's valuable. But as age catches up, he's morphing into traditional bat-him-ninth catcher.

2024 outlook: Part-time work, but could be asked to add a new duty: helping to train catching prospect Jair Camargo.

Carlos Correa, 29

OK, we're convinced — it doesn't matter if his game is a regular-season whisper as long as he's a postseason bullhorn.

Contract: Owed $36 million next year and an average of $32.8 million over the next five.

2024 outlook: In middle of everything, as usual. And if his heel stops nagging him, maybe he can recover the 50-point dip in OBP?

He's a manager's pet: able to credibly handle any position, any time, and still can mash lefties.

Contract: Arbitration eligible (third year)

2024 outlook: Arb value approaching $8 million might seem too pricey for utility man, but consider: with shortstop market unusually thin, he could spark a bidding war in trade.

Edouard Julien, 24

How will the Twins ever replace Luis Arraez's .795 OPS and 128 OPS+ from a year ago? With a rookie two years younger whose numbers were .839 and 130, that's how.

2024 outlook: Lefties (.196) remain his weakness, but if he attacks that the way he did his defensive deficiencies, he's a cornerstone.

Royce Lewis, 24

The only bad part about his abbreviated 2023 is that we'll never know how great a rookie season can be; 15 homers and 52 RBI in only 58 games sure sparks the imagination.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Making every bases-loaded at-bat a can't-miss moment, selling more No. 23 jerseys in Minnesota than Maya Moore.

What a fall: the slump-ridden 40-game start turned out to be his season highlight, because a shoulder impingement threw his Twins career in doubt.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: Unlikely to reclaim his position from Lewis, he's a logical trade candidate.

Jorge Polanco, 30

Steady as ever despite a couple of injuries, willing to switch positions if it'll help, he's become one of those players you'll really miss when he's gone.

2024 outlook: While younger guys snap up infield positions, he could morph into super-utilityman.

Donovan Solano, 35

Eve-of-camp signing had far more impact than Twins expected: Early pinch-hitting role expanded into career-best year in games, hits, walks and doubles.

Contract: Free agent

2024 outlook: He'd like to stay, and Twins need reliable righthanded bats. But he'll be 36, so deciding factor may be how big a raise he'll want from $2 million markdown price.

Made huge concession toward staying healthy by staying out of center field, but it didn't work: played fewer than 100 games for sixth consecutive year.

Contract: Five years remain on his contract, which guarantees him $15 million per year.

2024 outlook: What choice do they have? Try again next year, put him back in the outfield, hope for better results. He's so good when not hurt, it's worth the effort.

Willi Castro, 26

Twins owe Tigers a big thank-you for hosting Castro's lackluster formative years, because he blossomed into a valuable spare part.

2024 outlook: Playing four days a week at four different positions.

Joey Gallo, 29

One of the great baseball mysteries of our time, a terrific, terrible, awesome, awful hitter. How can a player be in danger of DFA while second on his team in homers? Only Joey knows.

Contract: Free agent

2024 outlook: Scott Boras will surely convince another overly optimistic franchise that they can "fix" the two-time All-Star. Just not for $11 million.

He was so excited to follow up on what seemed like a breakthrough 2022, but disaster struck in the form of a .176 start and then a broken shin.

Contract: Pre-arbitration, though could qualify for Super 2 arbitration status

2024 outlook: Twins seem willing to give it another try, but he'll have to earn his way onto a roster that's gotten more crowded.

Max Kepler, 30

Seemed uninterested early on, but Twins stuck by him and were rewarded with a career renaissance by the Renaissance Man, who led Twins in barreled-up balls (41).

2024 outlook: A year ago, trade or buyout was plausible. Now he's a committed teammate and a huge bargain for the price.

Alex Kirilloff, 25

His walk rate soared, his homer rate doubled, his ability to hit to all fields was eye-catching. His availability? Yeah, it's still a problem.

Contract: Pre-arbitration, though could qualify for Super 2 arbitration status

2024 outlook: Sneaky candidate for a multiyear contract; with his health ever an issue, would he take below-market package?

Behind the scenes, Twins raved about his redoubled efforts to address weaknesses. On the field, progress is negligible — and now he's being passed from behind.

Contract: Pre-arbitration

2024 outlook: If Twins pull off a front-page trade, Larnach is a good bet to be included.

Jordan Luplow, 30

Filled a hole the Twins didn't expect, and was good enough. If he was five years younger, he'd be intriguing.

2024 outlook: A textbook nontender case, he'll look for work as a backup.

Andrew Stevenson, 29

On the running-shy Twins, his pinch-running speed was almost startling: we can do that? He was also one of St. Paul's steadiest players.

Contract: Pre-arbitration, though likely to qualify for Super 2 arbitration status

2024 outlook: Another likely nontender, but don't be surprised if Twins offer another season with Saints.

Perhaps no player rescued the Twins more than the journeyman outfielder, who not only did Gold Glove work in center, but reworked swing to provide career-best power.

Contract: Free agent

2024 outlook: Such a difficult call for teams — do you bank an outlier season and move on, or invest millions in the premise that at 33, he can do it again? Here's betting Twins choose the latter.

Matt Wallner, 25

Heads up, bleacher fans: 12 of his 14 homers traveled more than 400 feet. But the Forest Lake rookie isn't just a slugger, as his .370 OBP proves.

2024 outlook: Pitchers will adjust, so his sophomore season should be a fascinating chess match.