Key to Twins' season: Position players will need to improve and stay healthy

FORT MYERS, FLA. – This was never the plan, not specifically. Baseball drafts are too random, the time necessary to reach the majors too long, for an organization to say with any confidence that decisions made in 2017 and ’18 and ’19 will pay off in 2025.

But here we are in 2025. And the Twins’ fate this season — their ability to regain the AL Central crown they won in 2023 and bobbled away in 2024 — figures largely to rest upon the players they selected early in those drafts late in the 2010s.

“You always want that pipeline producing regulars, guys who have the talent to be major contributors to a winning team for multiple years,” Twins President Derek Falvey said. “We walk into this season with every expectation that the wave of players who are here now have improved and are still improving and can serve as the offensive core of a championship contender.”

He means third baseman Royce Lewis, the overall No. 1 pick in 2017. And left fielder Trevor Larnach, the Twins’ first-round pick in 2018. Also catcher Ryan Jeffers, a Twin since the second round that same year. And especially Matt Wallner, the Twins’ supplemental first-rounder in 2019.

“I’ve talked to a few different managers that I know who come through here during spring training, and the first thing they ask me about is Matt Wallner,” Falvey said. “They’re very aware of him: ‘I really like that kid. I like the way he swings the bat.’ They watch from the other dugout, and they’re impressed.”

With the departure of Max Kepler, the wave of talent that once brought Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano and Kepler is officially over, while the era of Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall grows visible on the horizon.

But for now, Twins are hoping all four of their late-last-decade players, each between 25-28 years old and theoretically entering their prime, can impress opponents and teammates alike. (There was a time when a quintet out of that class appeared possible, but Keoni Cavaco, 15th overall in 2019, failed to launch.)

Each has had memorable highlights, and lengthy stretches of production — and most importantly, each player is still improving with experience, the Twins believe.

“Development is the name of the game for the Minnesota Twins,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “It’s something our organization does very well, and something we need to not only continue to do well, but get better at as time goes on. It’s where we focus our energy — improving the players we already have.”

That’s what the Twins are counting on from their batting order: more development from the young guys, and more health from the veterans. Lineup cornerstones Carlos Correa, 30, and Byron Buxton, 31, are their two most accomplished hitters. But Correa was limited to 86 games last season because of injuries, while Buxton played only 102, which was still his most in a season since 2017.

In fact, it’s possible to project improvement at all eight non-pitching positions in 2025 for the Twins, with the possible exception of first base, where Carlos Santana, lost to free agency after a season in which he hit 22 home runs and won a Gold Glove, will be replaced by journeyman Ty France.

“You hope you’re getting as many guys on the rise as possible, for sure, and even for the guys that are veterans, giving them a chance to get better,” Falvey said. “You want guys in your lineup that are still on the upswing, that are starting to really blossom, and then some guys that are in the middle, at the peak of their careers and playing really well.”

With that dynamic, and the return of a deep pitching staff, it’s no wonder that the Twins remain a consensus favorite among sports betting sites, and plenty of independent analysts, to win the American League Central.

“In ’23 we won the division. Last year, we played good baseball for a large chunk of the season, but didn’t play well at the end. But the core of that group is still here, guys that showed they were highly competitive in the division,” Falvey said.

“Take Ryan Jeffers — you still think of him as young, but he’s got a lot of miles under his feet. So he’s found a way now to impact the roster. We’ve got a lot of those guys, who we see getting a little better all the time. That’s how you build a good team.”

But can they be a great one? The Twins went 82-80 a year ago, lost Santana and Kepler to free agency, and added only a pair of 30-year-olds looking to rebound from disappointing years in France and Harrison Bader.

Offseason player rankings, including MLB Network’s “Ten Best Now” series, barely mention Twins players among the 10 best at their position. And for a team with World Series ambitions, as Falvey and Baldelli insist they have, they appear to lack a critical ingredient: a star player with MVP-level production.

No World Series champion in the past decade (excepting COVID-shortened 2020) has won a title without a player who racked up a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 6.0 or WAR, according to Baseball Reference. The Twins haven’t penciled a hitter into their lineup with even a 4.0 WAR since Correa’s first season with the Twins in 2022.

Falvey, for one, expects that to change this year.

“On a rate basis last year, while he didn’t have the plate appearances over the full season, Correa’s performance when he was healthy made him by our measurements the fourth-best position player in baseball,” Falvey said. “He has that kind of quality in his play. We know Buck, when he’s going well, he can be a player like that. Royce has that ability, too.

“It’s about the team, for sure, but you need a few guys to really step up and carry the load — I truly believe we have that in the room.”

And then there’s Wallner, who posted a .914 OPS after the All-Star break last year.

“During different stretches last year, he was carrying our roster. He has that kind of ability as a young hitter. He can get on base, but also hit for power and drive in multiple runs,” Falvey said. “We see him coming into his own. He’ll have to continue to work, because pitchers will adapt to him, too, but he has every ingredient you need to be a guy who helps carry us.”