After 13 different pitchers made multiple starts for the Twins in 2022 — with none topping 147 innings — it was clear the organization needed an upgrade in 2023.
Twins rotation: Curious stats, impressive stability — and one big question
Starting pitching has been carrying the Twins for most of the season, but turbulence and big decisions could have an impact for the final two months of the season.
August 4, 2023 at 4:02PM
That has largely materialized even with a slight regression since the All-Star break. Along the way, curious stats have emerged, which I talked about on Friday's Daily Delivery podcast.
One big question could loom ahead as well. Here are five things I'm thinking about regarding the rotation:
1. Joe Ryan and the truth: For almost three months, Joe Ryan was pitching like an All-Star. After a three-hit shutout in late June, his ERA was down to 2.98. But in seven starts since then, Ryan gave up 19 home runs — more than any pitcher in Twins history in a seven-start span. So what gives?
Well, according to Ryan, he has been nursing a groin injury for the duration of those seven starts. And he didn't tell anyone. Ryan's ERA jumped by almost 1.5 runs during those starts. Just not smart — and surprising that the Twins didn't figure it out sooner.
2. Sonny Gray's quest: Gray didn't just pitch like an All-Star. He was an All-Star. But even as he kept racking up good outings, he hadn't won since April — a staggering span of 15 starts — until finally breaking through Thursday.
No Twins starter had ever had a longer winless streak. For all the bad pitchers they've employed, it's absurd that the distinction belongs to an All-Star.
3. Impressive stability: Just seven Twins pitchers have made multiple starts this season, a stark contrast to last year's 13. That rotational stability will be tested, though, with Ryan on the injured list and veteran Dallas Keuchel taking his place.
4. Ober's role: The Twins' most consistent pitcher this season is perhaps the one who didn't even start the year in the rotation. Bailey Ober stepped in after early injuries to Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. In 15 of his 17 starts since then, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs.
The importance of Ober cannot be overstated. The season could have gone sideways with those early injuries. Instead, Ober has emerged as a viable option for the present and future.
5. What about October? This might be a presumptuous discussion, but it's worth having. Assuming Ryan, Ober, Pablo Lopez, Gray and Maeda are all healthy and that the Twins end up winning the AL Central, which three pitchers would you pick to start a three-game Wild Card series (all of which would be at Target Field)?
At the moment, my order would look like this: Gray, Lopez and Ober. Gray is a dependable veteran. Lopez probably has the best stuff and can dominate good teams. And Ober deserves it for how he has pitched so far.
But we'll see where everything is in two months.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
