Twins' approach to stealing bases, problematic to some, is a math problem for team officials

FORT MYERS, FLA. - Rod Carew always enjoys working his way through the Twins clubhouse each spring, offering encouragement, advice or a little wisdom from a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

And OK, maybe an occasional threat if he thinks it will do some good.

“He told me, ‘If you don’t steal 60 [bases], I might not speak to you next spring!’ “ Byron Buxton said, laughing about the encounter a day later. “He’s been on me about it. When he starts wagging that finger, what are you gonna say?”

Well, you might say that Carew is a member of a significant slice of Twins fandom that wishes the team would become a bit more adventurous about swiping bases.

The Twins stole 65 bases last season, which ranked dead last among the 30 major league baseball teams, and two fewer than Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz. But that was hardly unusual — in Rocco Baldelli’s six years as Minnesota’s manager, his teams have finished 30th in stolen bases four times and never ranked higher than a tie for 24th, when they managed 54 in 2021.

In fact, in the five complete seasons under Baldelli (excluding 2020, shortened to 60 games by COVID-19), the Twins have averaged 54.2 successful steals per season. The other 29 teams have averaged 95.4.

To be fair, it’s not just Baldelli’s tenure. A total of 17 MLB teams swiped more than 100 bases last year, something the Twins haven’t accomplished since 2012, tied with the Giants for the longest such drought in the majors.

It’s enough to make Carew — whose 271 steals over his 12-year Twins career are the second-most in team history, just five behind Chuck Knoblauch — want to install some flashing green lights near first base.

“I see guys who can run who aren’t running. I don’t know why they’re not. But I do wish they would,” said Carew, who reiterated his goal of “50 or 60” for Buxton. “If you get a good jump, if you read the pitcher and time it well, you should have success. But I guess it’s all analytics” giving his former team pause these days.

He’s probably right about that in at least one notable way: By StatCast’s measurements, Twins baserunners ran an average of 26.8 feet per second last season — and no team was slower.

“Hard to steal many bases if you don’t have the speed for it,” acknowledged Derek Falvey, the Twins’ president of baseball operations.

But Falvey said the Twins’ recent inability to pose much of a threat on the bases is not a philosophical choice, not a decision to avoid running in favor of other skills, notably power hitting. Sometimes, it’s just how a roster shapes up.

“If you have a group that’s more power-oriented, sometimes those guys don’t come with as much speed,” Falvey said. He pointed out that the 2019 roster, which set a major league record for home runs, finished last in steals, too, because risking potential runs on the bases wouldn’t make much sense.

Rule changes over the past couple of seasons, limiting the number of pickoff throws and the time pitchers can hold the ball, as well as a small increase in the size of bases, have encouraged base-stealing. The per-team average has risen by 45% since 2022, to 121 per team now.

Even so, Falvey said, “Taking that chance doesn’t have as much upside as we probably wish it did. For certain parts of our lineup, doubles and [home runs] is a better way to score. … In the current game, stealing bases is not as prominent. It’s a part of our offensive strategy, just not a core part. There are moments when it’s a valuable option, but it’s not something we prioritize over everything else.”

The current Twins roster includes Willi Castro, who stole 33 bases in 2023, plus Austin Martin, who had a 35-steal season in the minors in 2022. And earlier this month, the team added Harrison Bader, who has averaged 18 steals over the past three seasons.

Martin, after going 7-for-10 in steal attempts as a rookie, hopes to be on the move more often in 2025.

“It’s Rocco’s ship, and I trust his decisions. I didn’t get the green light last year — that’s something that I have to earn first,” Martin said. “Every time I get on, I want to run. We focus a lot on slugging and OPS, but to be a good baseball team, the more we can use our athleticism, the more baseball games we can win.”

Trying to steal bases doesn’t just risk being thrown out, though. There’s also an injury risk, part of the reason Castro, for instance, took off for second roughly 50% less frequently last year and stole only 14 bases in 23 tries.

And then there’s Buxton, who once stole 33 consecutive bases and who stole a career-high 29 in 2017. Keeping their center fielder healthy and on the field is certainly a factor in the Twins’ reluctance to give him that sort of free rein on the bases now.

Not that he’s unwilling.

“As long as it helps us win, yeah, I’ll go,” Buxton said. “I only care about what’s going to put us in the best position to win.”

Well, that and keeping Hall of Famers happy.

“He wants 60,” Buxton said of Carew’s request, “so maybe there’s something in the works.”