Mathematics might not have been Minnesota United coach Adrian Heath's strongest schoolboy subject, but he has crunched the numbers enough to know Saturday's game against FC Dallas probably is his team's biggest yet.
Minnesota United has too much at stake Saturday to let Salt Lake loss linger
The Loons are clinging to third place in the Western Conference with six games remaining, starting with FC Dallas on Saturday at Allianz Field.
September 3, 2022 at 12:25AM
"Just because of what can happen," he said.
With six regular-season games left, the Loons remain third in MLS' Western Conference with 44 points, one point ahead of fourth-place Dallas, after a shorthanded 3-0 loss at Real Salt Lake on Wednesday.
They're also five points above the MLS Cup playoff cut line in which seven teams make it, including the top four that earn a home playoff game.
"This is the part of football that we enjoy," Loons veteran defender Michael Boxall said. "You want to be playing in games that have a lot at stake. A few of the games in the last month or so have felt like that."
By Heath's calculations, his team should earn a home playoff game if it can reach 50 points — two more victories — in the West's packed standings. The six remaining games are split equally between home and away, ending with a "Decision Day" finale against Vancouver at Allianz Field on Oct. 9.
"We went through it this morning, and you try to guess what everybody is going to do," Heath said. "I actually think if we win two more games, that will get us home-field advantage because the teams below us will have to win out virtually. And they're all playing each other [in these last games] so they can't."
Dallas is one point behind in fourth place. Nashville and Real Salt Lake are both two points behind. Portland is five points behind in the seventh and last playoff spot while L.A. Galaxy is just below the playoff line six points back.
The Loons have played one game fewer than Dallas, Nashville and Portland, the same as Real Salt Lake and one more than the Galaxy.
"If we were to get 47 points by the end of the evening tomorrow, I will be absolutely delighted," Heath said after Friday's training.
The Loons are 8-2-2 since late June despite Wednesday's loss in which Heath made six starting 11 rotations. He did so purposely, knowing the game would be played in challenging conditions while a late-night arrival awaited players one time zone back at home.
"Somebody asked me, 'Do you regret making the changes?'" Heath said. "Do I regret it? No, 95-degree heat, at altitude [4,300 feet], getting back in your bed at 4 in the morning is not ideal for what could be perceived to be one of the biggest games of the season for us. All them players who played the other night have MLS experience and we should have done better."
Star playmaking midfielder Emanuel Reynoso stayed home to rest on Wednesday. Starters Robin Lod, Luis Amarilla and Kervin Arriaga all played limited second-half substitution minutes. Franco Fragapane didn't play at all and starting goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair was replaced by Tyler Miller at halftime after he dislocated a finger.
Heath on Friday lamented the three goals allowed, just as he did immediately after Wednesday's game. The Loons allowed two goals on crosses into the six-yard box in the first 23 minutes with a cobbled-together backline missing injured starters Bakaye Dibassy and Kemar Lawrence.
DJ Taylor started at Lawrence's left-back position, Brent Kallman replaced Dibassy alongside Boxall and newcomer Alan Benitez started at right back again.
"We haven't got time to dwell on what went wrong," Heath said. "I thought the goals, all three, were avoidable. We have to move on. We lost two games in 12. I won't let one result and one poor defensive performance mask what has been an incredible run for us."
Minnesota started only two strikers against Seattle, leaving Sang Bin Jeong and Joseph Rosales to provide the width behind Teemu Pukki and Kelvin Yeboah.
