With six games remaining, Minnesota United coach Adrian Heath predicted two more victories probably would earn a playoff spot.
Then the Loons lost to FC Dallas and at Portland and Sporting Kansas City by a combined 8-1 score and played Los Angeles FC to a 1-1 draw.
After a week's FIFA international break, the Loons have games at San Jose and at home against Vancouver on "Decision Day" left.
"The problem is I said then we needed to win two and now we're down to two," Heath said. "If we win both, I think we still probably make the top four. If we don't have any more points, we probably won't make it. We've put ourselves in a spot, but we're in a spot where a lot of other teams wish they could be."
Heath's team could use a little help from those all around their sixth-place standing in Western Conference.
Portland didn't help them by scoring a 95th minute goal in a 1-1 draw with Columbus on Sunday that moved the Timbers a point ahead of the Loons into fifth place.
"This weekend would have been unbelievable," Heath said if not for that. "We couldn't have asked for better results. There are a few games to be played this week and weekend and then we'll see where we are because everybody will have two games left them. You look at the fixtures and it's impossible for all the teams around us to get maximum points because they're all playing each other."
More than hopeful
Loons midfielder Robin Lod worked on his own Tuesday after he didn't join his Finland national team for the upcoming break because of an ankle injury.