As Vikings offense continues to struggle, their formula for success doesn't add up

The general premise for Vikings success in 2023 went something like this: The offense would score plenty of points, with dynamic rookie Jordan Addison replacing Adam Thielen, T.J. Hockenson on the team for a full season and Kirk Cousins facing fewer long third downs because of a more efficient running game. If new defensive coordinator Brian Flores could coax even modest improvement out of a group that ranked 31st in the NFL in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed last season, the Vikings would win enough to be a factor in the NFC.

Through five games, the Vikings' defense is indeed marginally better than it was last season, ranking 22nd in points allowed and 18th in yards while placing in the middle third of the NFL on advanced metrics like success rate and expected points added per play. The group is fifth in the league in yards allowed per rushing attempt (3.5). Though the Vikings defense has produced only three takeaways and ranks 25th in third-down conversion percentage after allowing the Chiefs to go 9-for-15 on third downs Sunday, it had two key fourth-quarter stops that gave the Vikings a chance to tie the game.

Instead, many of the Vikings' biggest problems through five games have resided with the offense.

A staggering 22% of their drives this season have ended in turnovers, with Josh Oliver's game-opening fumble the eighth one the Vikings have lost this season. The Vikings' offense has turned the ball over seven times in the first quarter this season and turned it over seven times inside an opponents' 35-yard line.

Though Cousins ranks second in the league in passing yards, he has thrown 192 of his 204 passes with the Vikings tied or trailing. They are 17th in both EPA per play and success rate when dropping back to pass. They rank 20th in red zone success rate. Sunday, after Oliver's fumble, K.J. Osborn and Alexander Mattison dropped passes, while T.J. Hockenson had three go off his hands.

Cousins said afterward he was throwing high too often and blamed himself for rushing through his progression too early on a second-quarter throw that sailed through the middle of the end zone before Osborn was ready for the ball.

There were procedural problems Sunday, too. The Vikings were forced to burn a timeout to avoid a delay of game in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, they had to take a delay of game penalty because they were out of timeouts as Cousins tried to get Hockenson lined up in the right spot.

"Certainly at times, I feel like there's opportunities to play better," Cousins said. "And when you feel that's the big part of it, then it's very fixable, or it gives you hope, encouragement that we can turn it around because you feel like you have the players in the room to do that and the coaches in the room to do that."

At least in the short term, though, they might not have Justin Jefferson, who left with a strained hamstring in the fourth quarter on Sunday. O'Connell said Monday the Vikings are still evaluating Jefferson's hamstring, adding "there'll probably be a couple different opinions on it" as to how much time he could miss. Jefferson, O'Connell said Monday, was trying to find a way to get back into the game on Sunday, though the Vikings decided to rule him out after the injury.

It seems unlikely either Jefferson or the Vikings would risk a more significant injury, though, for the sake of bringing him back before he's ready. O'Connell said the Vikings would "do what's best for Justin and give him the treatment and a plan that's a big-picture positive for him." It makes sense for the Vikings to prioritize the 24-year-old's future regardless of the circumstances; it strains credulity to suggest the team would be hasty with Jefferson while it is still trying to finalize a long-term deal with him.

Speculation about the Vikings' future at quarterback will only get louder if the team only has one or two wins by the Oct. 31 trade deadline. But three significant factors — a team being interested in a half-season of Cousins, the quarterback agreeing to waive his no-trade clause and Vikings ownership effectively giving up on the 2023 season — would have to align for a deal to take place. It seems more likely the Vikings' big decisions about their plan at quarterback, and a contract extension for Jefferson, will happen this offseason rather than during the year.

Despite having the NFL's second-highest paid tight end, the reigning offensive player of the year, a 12th-year quarterback, six additional first- or second-round picks in the lineup and a play-caller who won a Super Bowl as the Rams' offensive coordinator, the Vikings' offense hasn't been efficient enough to flip the close games the team won a year ago.

As such, the formula the team hoped would lead to a second straight NFC North title hasn't gone as planned through five weeks.

"I believe in this group. I believe in our coaches. I believe in this organization," O'Connell said. "Results just have not gone our way, and I believe my job is to look very closely at all of these results and continue find ways to coach this team better, deploy our personnel better, give people opportunities to prove some things to earn more [opportunities] and then continue to drive forward. There's not going to be any questioning or doubt in my mind, knowing that we've had four tough results. But I do feel like this team is able to compete and we're going to do that every single week, and I believe in the end, we're going to find out exactly what we are through writing our story for this whole season."