Vikings-Cardinals prediction: A potential playoff preview at U.S. Bank Stadium

After going undefeated on their three-game road trip, the Vikings return home for three straight at U.S. Bank Stadium, starting with a pair of potential first-round playoff previews against the Cardinals and Falcons before a Monday night game against the Bears. The 6-5 Cardinals, who are tied atop the NFC West with the Seahawks, are up first with a coaching staff led by former Mike Zimmer assistants (head coach Jonathan Gannon, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis).

Here’s a look at what to expect:

December in Minnesota, January in Arizona? If the season ended today, the Vikings would begin the playoffs in Atlanta, facing Kirk Cousins and the Falcons in the first round. But Atlanta, Arizona and Seattle are all 6-5 and vying for the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds. The Vikings are currently the No. 5 seed with the top wild-card spot; there’s much to be determined in the NFC North, where the Lions are 11-1 and the Packers are just a half-game behind the Vikings at 9-3. But if the Vikings stayed at No. 5, they’d play the fourth seed in the first round, which could turn out to be Arizona.

Baker leads Cardinals’ secondary: Veteran Budda Baker is one of the best safeties in the NFL, and the Cardinals will line him up in a number of different spots on Sunday. They’ll begin many of their snaps in the same look, with Baker in the middle of a picket fence of five defensive backs, before moving after the snap and forcing quarterbacks to process coverage on the fly. Baker is the key to the approach; the Cardinals will move him throughout their formation, often bringing him into the box as a run defender or extra pass rusher. Much like the Vikings do with Harrison Smith, the Cardinals make Baker a player for which offensive coordinators must constantly account.

Even without Oliver, run game could thrive: The Vikings will again play without Josh Oliver, after the tight end missed his second consecutive week of practice with the ankle injury he sustained on Nov. 17 against the Titans. But running back Aaron Jones had his second 100-yard game of the season last week against the Bears, and the Vikings could find room to run against a Cardinals defense that’s struggled to stop teams on the ground this season. According to data from NFL Fast R, opponents have been successful on 43.2% of their rushing attempts against Arizona this season, the sixth-highest mark in the league.

Murray‘s mobility makes him dangerous: A week after the Vikings faced Caleb Williams in Chicago, they’ll have a similar challenge in Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who has averaged a league-leading 10 yards per attempt when he’s scrambled this season, according to Sports Info Solutions. He’s run for a total of 380 yards and four touchdowns this season. As defensive coordinator Brian Flores noted Tuesday, the Vikings had several plays where they nearly sacked Williams, before he escaped to scramble or throw on the move. They’ll have to be even more effective while executing a similar rush plan against Murray. They used Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman as a spy against Williams last week; both players could see similar assignments Sunday.

Harrison, McBride give Cardinals passing game life: The Cardinals used the fourth pick in the draft on Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., pairing him with tight end Trey McBride in a revamped passing game. Harrison has 36 catches for 546 yards and six touchdowns this season, while McBride is second among tight ends with 652 receiving yards this season. The Vikings could use Stephon Gilmore to follow Harrison, but given how opponents have picked on them at times in the middle of the field this year, McBride presents a unique threat.

Vikings

Cardinals

The Cardinals have used Murray and James Conner in an effective run game that’s helped them control time of possession this season, and the Vikings could need some time to sort through a unique coverage structure that will move Baker to different spots in the defense. But the Vikings’ ability to run the ball against the Cardinals could help them control the clock in a game where they‘ll want to limit Murray’s impact, while their defense should be fired up to go after Murray in the first home game since Nov. 3. This one could be close, and could swing on a few big plays. But the Vikings will do enough to win a high-scoring game and get to 10-2 before Kirk Cousins returns to town. Vikings 31, Cardinals 28

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