Analysis: How the Vikings are winning the turnover battle and stealing games

The Vikings’ 31-29 win at Lambeau Field on Sunday brought Kevin O’Connell’s career record as head coach to 24-14, and improved his record to 21-0 when his team finishes with a neutral or positive turnover margin.

That statistic is updated almost mechanically after a Vikings victory now, and it reflects well on O’Connell’s teams: When they don’t beat themselves, they’re generally talented enough and well-prepared enough to win. But rote repetition of the turnover margin stat doesn’t do Sunday’s game justice, because the means by which the Vikings won the turnover battle against the Packers was unlike any other victory in the coach’s tenure.

The Vikings were only the sixth team in the past five seasons to turn the ball over three times and still finish with a positive turnover differential, and the Packers game was only the second time in O’Connell’s tenure the Vikings have won with three turnovers (the 33-point comeback against the Colts was the other).

They remained undefeated on Sunday, but they certainly weren’t perfect: Jalen Nailor reached up for a punt while tracking it in the sun (after coaches told him not to field anything over his head), and the fumble set up the Packers’ first touchdown. Xavier McKinney undercut a Sam Darnold throw for Aaron Jones to intercept it near the end zone, and Green Bay pulled within six after Keisean Nixon rushed off Darnold’s blind side on a corner blitz for a strip sack at the Vikings’ 32. And while they’ve won the turnover battle in consecutive weeks against the Texans and Packers and reduced giveaways after committing 11 in the first four games last year, they’ve still turned the ball over seven times this year.

Much of the reason for Vikings’ vast improvement in turnover margin, from minus-8 through four games last year to plus-3 this year, is the defense: Brian Flores’ group has 10 takeaways so far, posting two in each of the Vikings’ first three games before getting four against the Packers on Sunday. It was the Vikings’ first game with that many takeaways under Flores as defensive coordinator, and only their second with O’Connell as head coach (the first was their dramatic win over the Bills in 2022).

“There was an emphasis on taking the ball away and really maximizing some new elements to the scheme that ‘Flo’ and his staff brought forward,” O’Connell said. “We’ve been able to see that show up with some takeaways, and the [eight] fourth-down stops, too. That’s not necessarily going to be showing up on the stat sheet, but I think there were two more [Sunday] that were critical and kind of serve as a pseudo-takeaway, whether it’s field position or as a red-zone fourth down.”

The Vikings’ 10 takeaways are the second most in the league, and their eight interceptions are tied for the NFL lead. Four of those interceptions are from veterans they brought in this year (Kamu Grugier-Hill, Andrew Van Ginkel and Shaq Griffin). Grugier-Hill has only played extensively in the two games Ivan Pace Jr. has missed because of an ankle injury, but he’s already intercepted two passes, and stripped Texans tight end Dalton Schultz of the ball a week ago, before a replay review overturned the fumble and showed Schultz hadn’t established possession. Van Ginkel picked off a Daniel Jones screen and returned the interception for a touchdown in Week 1 against the Giants, nearly coming down with two more picks against the 49ers, and Griffin corralled a tipped pass for his first interception on Sunday.

“I think it goes back to smart football players that we’ve brought in,” O’Connell said. “‘Flo’ and his staff are doing a great job using those guys within the scheme, pairing them with the guys we already felt really good about.”

Against the Packers, Grugier-Hill lined up over the ball on a third-and-7 in the first quarter, suggesting he might blitz, and dropped into coverage after the snap. He was responsible for the middle of the field in a Cover-2 look in the first quarter on Sunday, and the three Green Bay receivers he saw lined up in a tight split to his right. He figured there were only so many combinations the Packers could be running in the situation, and keyed on the dagger concept the Packers often run, which has one receiver going deep with another receiver on a deep in-breaking route. He figured safeties Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum could cover Luke Musgrave’s deep route, and he peeled back to Christian Watson’s in-breaking route, snatching the ball away from Watson for an interception.

“I was like, ‘I’m going to try to steal this one,’ which is sometimes not recommended,” he said. “But I thought I might as well try.”

Flores gives players the freedom to pursue takeaways at times, as Grugier-Hill did on Sunday and Van Ginkel did against the Giants. “He gives us some boundaries, for sure,” Grugier-Hill said. “If it’s not working, he’s like, ‘I’m going to call it back, and we’re going to run it my way.’ But he lets us play our thing, and we do a good job in here. We talk to each other throughout the week, being like, ‘Hey, if we get this, what would you do if I do this?’ So it’s great in that aspect.”

After Grugier-Hill and Griffin got their interceptions on Sunday, cornerback Byron Murphy Jr., whose locker is next to both of theirs, wanted to make his own play. He picked off Love’s deep throw for Dontayvion Wicks, and stripped Tucker Kraft for a fourth-quarter fumble.

“We’re all getting to the ball,” he said. “Every guy is flying to the ball, even from the D-line. So I think all those turnovers just come with the whole defense playing together.”

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