Vikings-Colts preview, prediction: Will Joe Flacco or T.J. Hockenson be the bigger problem Sunday night?

With Hockenson back, the Vikings offense has all its weapons for the first time this season. But Indianapolis’ switch to a veteran QB is another challenge for a struggling defense.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
November 2, 2024 at 8:07PM
T.J. Hockenson (87) of the Minnesota Vikings during practice at the Minnesota Vikings Training Facility in Eagan, Minn., on Wednesday, October 30, 2024.. ] CARLOS GONZALEZ • carlos.gonzalez@startribune.com (Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
  • Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Sunday
  • Where: U.S. Bank Stadium
  • TV: NBC
  • Radio: KFAN-FM 100.3; SiriusXM 88 (Westwood One) 225 (Vikings), 226 (Colts)
  • Line: Vikings by 5½

Two straight losses have the Vikings in need of a victory at U.S. Bank Stadium before the start of a three-game road trip. They’ll face the Colts in a game that was moved from noon to prime time as part of the NFL’s flexible scheduling policy, and they’ll try to get to 6-2 against an Indianapolis team that will start veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, not 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson.

Here’s a look at what to watch Sunday night:

The biggest story line

QB change could mean bigger challenge: Colts coach Shane Steichen announced on Wednesday that Flacco will be the Indianapolis quarterback “going forward,” after Richardson completed 9 of 19 passes in a loss to the Texans and removed himself from the game for a play to catch his breath after a third-quarter scramble. The 39-year-old Flacco has completed 65.7% of his passes for seven touchdowns and one interception this season; while Richardson’s athletic ability presented a unique threat, he’d been on target with just 44.4% of his passes, according to Pro Football Reference. The Vikings will see a veteran quarterback for the fourth straight game as they try to end their losing streak.

Vikings offense vs. Colts defense

Vikings’ offense at full capacity with Hockenson’s return: Tight end T.J. Hockenson is set to play his first game of the season on Sunday night, returning from the torn ACL and MCL he sustained last Dec. 24. He joins Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor and Aaron Jones in an offense that’s looking for a boost after red zone shortcomings against the Lions and third-down failures against the Rams. Hockenson could help in both of those areas; he said Thursday that quarterback Sam Darnold “is going to like having me out there.” The Colts’ cornerbacks — former seventh-round pick Jaylon Jones, as well as former undrafted free agents Kenny Moore II and Samuel Womack III — have played well, but the Vikings could use Hockenson to pick on a group of linebackers that’s struggled in pass coverage.

Latu is Vikings’ first post-Darrisaw challenge: After Colts made Laiatu Latu the first defensive player taken with the 15th overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, the former UCLA defensive lineman leads the team with 13 pressures while posting two sacks so far this season. He’ll line up primarily at right end in the Colts’ nickel package, where he could face new left tackle Cam Robinson if the Vikings decide to play him after acquiring him from Jacksonville on Tuesday.

The Colts could lean on running back Jonathan Taylor. (Tony Gutierrez/The Associated Press)

Vikings defense vs. Colts offense

Colts offense operating quicker with Flacco: While Richardson has been pressured on 35.5% of his dropbacks this season, Flacco’s pressure rate is just 23.7% (the lowest in the NFL), according to Pro Football Focus. He’s done it with the fifth-quickest release time of any quarterback in the league. Quick throws have become part of the game plan against Brian Flores’ defense; Flacco could find quick gains to Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, especially with Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman out again. Alec Pierce has become the Colts’ best deep threat; according to NFL Next Gen Stats, he averages 24.6 yards per catch on 23.4 air yards per target. Both of those figures are tops in the league.

Taylor returns from ankle injury to big role: After missing time with a high ankle sprain earlier this year, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is healthy again and once more a focal point of the Indianapolis offense. He carried 20 times for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Texans last week in his first game back and will see plenty of work on inside zone runs on shotgun handoffs. The Colts spend more time in the shotgun than any team in the NFL; they’ll try to run Taylor against light boxes behind perennial Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson and veteran center Ryan Kelly.

Injury report

Vikings

  • Out: LB Blake Cashman (toe), DT Taki Taimani (ankle)
  • Questionable: CB Akayleb Evans (hip)

Colts

  • Out: T Bernhard Raimann (concussion)
  • Questionable: DE Kwity Paye (hamstring)

Prediction

Flacco might present a greater challenge than Richardson, as a veteran who’s been difficult to pressure and should be harder to fool. The Colts can lean on Taylor, and if Flacco gets time to push the ball downfield, Pierce is a solid deep threat. But even with a pair of first-round picks (Latu and Kwity Paye), the Colts have struggled to pressure quarterbacks this year, and Darnold should be able to pick on the Colts’ defense if he gets time to throw. The Vikings will ride the energy of a home crowd in a prime-time game and end their two-game losing streak. Vikings 27, Colts 21

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about the writer

about the writer

Ben Goessling

Sports reporter

Ben Goessling has covered the Vikings since 2012, first at the Pioneer Press and ESPN before becoming the Minnesota Star Tribune's lead Vikings reporter in 2017. He was named one of the top NFL beat writers by the Pro Football Writers of America in 2024, after honors in the AP Sports Editors and National Headliner Awards contests in 2023.

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