Vikings-Jaguars prediction: Healthier team has the advantage in Jacksonville

The Vikings (6-2) continue their string of AFC South matchups with their first trip to Jacksonville since a win there in 2016. They’ll head south on Sunday to face a 2-7 Jaguars team that ranks 30th in the league in points allowed, has won just once in Jacksonville and is dealing with a slate of injuries on offense.

Here’s a look at what to watch:

Vikings hitting the road with new kicking operation: Will Reichard hadn‘t missed a kick this season before last Sunday, but after pushing two field goals wide right, he ended up on injured reserve with a quadriceps strain. That, combined with All-Pro long snapper Andrew DePaola landing on injured reserve after hand surgery, means the Vikings will try to get through the next month after changing two-thirds of their field goal operation: veteran Jake McQuaide, who signed with the team on Wednesday, will be snapping to punter Ryan Wright, who’ll hold for John Parker Romo, the kicker the Vikings brought back this week. Romo has never kicked in a NFL game; he’ll get his first chance on Sunday as the successor to the rookie who beat him out in training camp.

Robinson faces his former team as Vikings look to protect Darnold: The Vikings traded for Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson after losing Christian Darrisaw for the season, and started Robinson against the Colts after two days of practice. Now, Robinson will line up to face the players he’d practiced against all season. The Jaguars have a talented front, with 2019 first-round pick Josh Hines-Allen lining up with 2022 No. 1 pick Travon Walker. But they’ve pressured QBs just 17.5% of the time, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, whom the Vikings interviewed before hiring Brian Flores in 2023, blitzes less than any defensive play-caller in the league, so the Vikings will likely see a steady slate of four-man rushes.

Run game looks for big day vs. struggling Jags D: Two weeks ago, the Jaguars gave up 170 rushing yards in a loss to the Packers, who ran Josh Jacobs 25 times for 127 yards after losing Jordan Love. Last week, the Eagles gained 237 yards on the ground, running Saquon Barkley 27 times for 159 yards while Jalen Hurts added another 67. The Vikings won’t use run-pass options the way the Eagles do (or, for that matter, the way the Packers do when Malik Willis steps in for Love). But a run game that got a boost from Cam Akers (six carries for 46 yards) against the Colts could be in line for a strong day against a Jaguars front that’s struggled after defending the run well early in the year.

With Lawrence likely out, Jones could start for Jags: Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, is likely to miss the game because of a left shoulder injury he sustained in the team’s loss to the Eagles last week. In his place, the Jaguars would start Mac Jones, who was taken 14 picks after Lawrence in the same draft and now backs him up after his time in New England ended last season. Jones threw for 382 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings in 2022, but two ineffective and turnover-prone seasons ended his time with the Patriots. C.J. Beathard, whom the Jaguars signed this week, could back up Jones.

Thomas the latest LSU receiver to thrive: The Jaguars selected Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall pick, which they received from the Vikings in a deal that gave Minnesota the 17th pick to select Dallas Turner. Thomas was the second LSU receiver taken in the first round, behind Malik Nabers at No. 6 overall, and has followed Justin Jefferson, among others, in the Tigers’ long line of successful NFL receivers. He’s caught 35 passes for 595 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. He’s big (6-foot-3, 209 pounds), fast (he ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine) and could command attention from Stephon Gilmore if Flores decides to assign the veteran to Thomas.

The Vikings’ pass rush should be able to generate pressure and stop the run against an outmatched Jaguars offensive line that’s dealing with injuries. While Jacksonville will keep defenders in coverage rather than blitzing Sam Darnold, the Vikings have enough weapons that they should still be able to find room to throw against an unremarkable secondary. The Vikings are the healthier team coming into this one, and they‘ve got every reason to take care of this game and keep the pressure on the Lions, who have a tough matchup with Houston on Sunday. In a stadium where plenty of their fans figure to show up and support them, the Vikings will win and get to 7-2. Vikings 27, Jaguars 14

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