Vikings' swift return to relevance would get boost with tailor-made upset of Chiefs

Congratulations to those who have incorporated Taylor Swift lyrics into their stories on the Kansas City Chiefs.

This column will accept a greater challenge: avoiding any mention, intentional or otherwise, of Swift's songs while writing about the Kansas City Chiefs' game against the Vikings.

Given her prolificness, this will be as difficult as winning a spelling bee without using consonants.

Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium, a bunch of people who will never be as famous as Swift will play football. The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions and are led by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The Vikings are not, and are not.

So why should the Vikings believe they can win?

1. Taylor Swift is a distraction.

I don't think this is true, but I will have my football-writing credentials revoked if I don't use the word "distraction'' at least once a season.

2. The Chiefs aren't that good … yet.

They're 3-1, but they don't resemble the team that has won two of the past four Super Bowls. Their starting wide receivers would be on the Vikings' practice squad.

The Chiefs have not had a receiver, not even star tight end Travis Kelce, produce more than 70 yards in a game. Justin Jefferson is averaging almost twice that.

It wouldn't be surprising to see Chiefs coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes guide this team to another Super Bowl, but this team is not a finished product in Week 5.

3. Stats.

Last year, the Chiefs won 14 games, and the Vikings won 13. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl, and the Vikings were upset at home in the first round of the playoffs. Strange? Not really.

According to the new-age statistic DVOA, which measures teams' play-by-play effectiveness while factoring in situational parameters, the Chiefs were the fourth-most effective team in the NFL last year, ranking first on offense and 14th on defense.

The Vikings ranked 28th overall, 20th on offense and 24th on defense. That's why they had to win so many games with dramatic plays.

This year, the Chiefs rank 8th in DVOA — eighth on offense and 14th on defense. The Vikings rank 14th — 12th on offense and 20th on defense. So, on a down-by-down basis, these one-win Vikings are probably tougher to play against than last year's 13-win Vikings were.

The Vikings' 1-3 record is largely a function of losing to a Tampa Bay team that may have been underrated. The Vikings' three losses were against teams that are currently a combined 9-3.

4. Addition by … addition.

In the Vikings' three losses, they were without pass rusher Marcus Davenport and running back Cam Akers, both of whom looked impressive in the victory at Carolina. Sunday against the Chiefs, the Vikings could use guard Dalton Risner, who could be a dramatic upgrade from second-year guard Ed Ingram.

5. Running forward is good.

In their first two games, the Vikings rushed 26 times for 69 yards. In their past two games, they rushed 47 times for 265 yards. Alexander Mattison has looked dynamic the past two weeks. Akers looked remarkably comfortable in his first game as a Viking. Even when it's not a top priority, the running game is important.

6. Mahomes' weakness.

Mahomes may be on his way to proving that he's the greatest football player who ever lived. He remains human. The creativity that makes him great is paired with risk. He threw two unconscionable interceptions against the Jets on Sunday night. Vikings defense coordinator Brian Flores undoubtedly will throw a variety of rushes and coverages at Mahomes. Mahomes has a career-worst 2.8 interception rate this season. The Vikings may have opportunities for turnovers.

7. Harry on.

Last Sunday at Carolina, Vikings safety Harrison Smith had a game for the ages with career highs in sacks (3) and tackles (14), while forcing a fumble that led to a touchdown. Smith's success against rookie quarterback Bryce Young won't necessarily translate to facing the Chiefs and Mahomes, but he showed he's still capable of making the big plays required of him. A Smith resurgence would give the Vikings a fighting chance.