It is rare for an NFL season to play out the way it did for the Vikings in 2022, when they went an record-breaking 11-0 in one-score games while cruising to an NFC North title.
Vikings have gotten exactly what they deserve so far this season
At 7-7 and with a coin flip chance of making the playoffs, this year has been quite different than 2022 for the Vikings. But their record and position is an accurate reflection of what they are.
December 21, 2023 at 11:47PM
But I would argue that it is almost as rare for an NFL season to play out the way it has so far for the Vikings in 2023: A series of twists and turns that have left them with exactly the record and opportunity they seem to deserve with three games left in the season.
The Vikings have earned their 7-7 mark, for better and worse. They have overcome numerous obstacles — most notably a 1-4 start and long-term injuries to Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins — to win in unexpected fashion, while they have suffered numerous head-scratching defeats as a result of shortcomings, self-inflicted mistakes or both.
Everyone has contributed some good and some bad, not always in equal measure but adding up to an equal record. Looming large among them is head coach Kevin O'Connell, as La Velle E. Neal III and I discussed on Thursday's Daily Delivery podcast.
The Vikings have lost three games they almost certainly should have won (home against the Chargers, home against the Bears and at Cincinnati) and they have won three games in surprising fashion (home against mighty San Francisco, at Atlanta when Josh Dobbs led an improbable comeback and at Las Vegas when they scored just three points).
They at times have looked like they should be tanking for a high draft pick in 2024 and at others like they might never lose again. Their playoff hopes have been almost completely trashed, then almost completely revived.
And now: They have three games left, all of them against division opponents. The predictive Upshot playoff model gives Minnesota a 51% chance of reaching the postseason, and the stakes are clear:
*Win none of them and they will miss the playoffs.
*Lose twice to the Lions but beat the Packers and the Vikings might still make it at 8-9 (41% chance). Beat the Lions once but lose the other two games and the odds are worse but still possible (27%).
*Win two of the last three and the Vikings will almost certainly make the playoffs as a wild card (98% chance).
*Win all three and they will definitely make the playoffs and would win the division if the Lions lose their other game to Dallas.
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The Vikings probably aren't bad enough to lose all three, nor are they good enough to win all three. They're in the squishy middle, in the exact place they belong, with the opportunity they earned, and will likely receive the outcome they deserve.
Here are four more things to know today:
*La Velle and I also talked about the Twins, and he speculated on what it might take to improve the pitching staff.
*It's been rare this season for the Timberwolves to lose and for them to complain loudly about officiating. Both happened Wednesday in a 127-113 loss to the 76ers.
*Gophers coach P.J. Fleck jumps straight from signing day into bowl preparation and then a huge defensive coordinator hire.
*Friday's podcast will feature Star Tribune outdoors writer Tony Kennedy talking about the impact of our warm weather on ice fishing.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
