Can the Vikings take a wild-card playoff victory over the Rams, who’ve already stung them once? Ben Goessling’s prediction.

The Rams, whom the Vikings will meet in the playoffs Monday night, are the most frequent playoff opponent in franchise history. The two teams will close wild-card weekend in a game the Vikings had to play after missing out on the first-round bye because of last Sunday’s loss to the Lions. The Rams, who come into the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 4 seed after winning the NFC West, will be the hosts away from home after the NFL moved the game to Arizona because of the deadly wildfires in the Los Angeles area this week.

Arizona steps in as the host: As wildfires continued to rage in Southern California last week, the NFL decided Thursday night to move Monday’s game from Los Angeles to Glendale, with Rams season-ticket holders buying 35,000 seats in the hours after the game went on sale. Around 52,000 seats went to Rams and Cardinals fans, who got the first crack at tickets before the general public. There figures to be a sizable Vikings contingent, too, given how many Minnesotans spend winters in Arizona and how many Vikings fans will travel for the game.

Rams’ pass rush will try to re-create success: In the first matchup between the two teams, the Rams pressured Sam Darnold on 13 of his 29 dropbacks, despite blitzing him just eight times, according to Pro Football Focus. All three of their sacks came with a four-man rush, with Jared Verse getting 1 ½ sacks. The Vikings lost Christian Darrisaw to injury during that game. It’ll be Cam Robinson at left tackle; the Vikings will have to be better at protecting Darnold this time around.

Jones’ playoff experience could help: Aaron Jones has seven rushing touchdowns in seven playoff games, including three in his two games with the Packers last year. The Vikings need better run blocking around the goal line, but they could lean on Jones‘ ability to find the end zone as they try to rebound from a game in which they were 0-4 in the red zone. Kevin O’Connell wouldn’t tip his hand on the Vikings’ plan for another Jones — quarterback Daniel Jones, who was elevated to the active roster this week — but said the team could have “something that may look different here and there.” Daniel Jones ran 17 times for 78 yards in the Giants’ playoff victory over the Vikings in 2022; perhaps the Vikings will use him in a red-zone package with Aaron Jones to try to finish drives.

Nacua won’t surprise Vikings this time: Though the Rams opened Puka Nacua’s window to return from injured reserve the week of the Thursday night game in October, defensive coordinator Brian Flores admitted the Vikings were surprised to see Nacua play as much as he did in the victory, in which he caught seven passes for 106 yards. Flores said the Vikings will have a plan for Nacua this time; they’ll have Blake Cashman to help with some of the routes the Rams ran over the middle. But the Vikings will have to account for Nacua and contain him after the catch; he had 56 yards after the catch in the October victory.

Vikings need to crank up pressure on Stafford: In the first game, the Vikings didn’t sack Matthew Stafford and only hit him twice, as the quarterback used a quick release to beat Brian Flores’ pressures. Stafford completed eight of his 13 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown when throwing more than 10 yards downfield, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, but his quick throws were the Rams’ best recipe to keep the Vikings from pressuring him. Cashman’s return should help, but if the Vikings can’t get to Stafford, the veteran quarterback could pick on them.

Vikings

Rams

The first matchup between these teams might not turn out to have much predictive value for this one: The Vikings aren’t traveling on a short week, they won’t be unsure about Nacua’s status, they’ll have Cashman this time, and T.J. Hockenson (who made his return from knee surgery the week after the first Rams game) will be on the field this time. But the Rams defense could make things difficult for Darnold, and Stafford’s playoff experience might be a big asset in a close game. That experience could be enough to make the difference. Rams 21, Vikings 17

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