NFL draft: Vikings could still make a first-round splash despite lack of picks

The term "competitive rebuild," which Kwesi Adofo-Mensah coined last year, gave a slogan to what might be the trickiest element of the Vikings general manager's job: How to care for both the short- and long-term interests of a franchise that's frequently been competitive, but rarely great.

Since the Wilf family bought the team in 2005, the Vikings have lost double-digit games just four times, and haven't done so since 2013. They have won 58.5% of their games since that last 10-loss season, and their 2022 NFC North title took them to the playoffs for the fourth time in nine years.

"We want to be super-competitive every time we step on the field every season," co-owner Mark Wilf said at the NFL owners' meetings last month. "And we feel we're going to be strong; of course, division winners, and we're going to be strong. We know there's strong teams in our division now, and we have to never take anything for granted. I think that's why they're working every single day to turn over every stone to keep getting better."

But the Vikings have hosted just three playoffs games in that time, and are 2-4 in the playoffs during that stretch. In the Wilfs' 18 seasons of ownership, they've celebrated just three playoff victories.

It all serves as backdrop for the Vikings' approach in the first night of the 2023 NFL draft, where a team that won 13 games a year ago could just as easily think about its long-term interests as its immediate needs.

The Vikings have just five picks to open the draft, including the 23rd overall selection, but could be in position to make headlines anyway. They have done plenty of work on the quarterback class, and it's believed they could take one in the first round on Thursday night if they believe the right player is available to them. If they traded up to select one, it would be the first move up they've made involving a first-round pick since drafting Teddy Bridgewater in 2014.

Or, the Vikings could trade back, particularly if the chance to select a quarterback or an impact player falls through in the first round. Adofo-Mensah made six trades in his first draft as the Vikings' GM, moving back in four of them. Because the Vikings sent their second-round pick to the Lions in the T.J. Hockenson deal in November, Adofo-Mensah could try to recoup another pick in the top 100 selections — or a 2024 first-round pick that might give the Vikings a better chance to get USC quarterback Caleb Williams or North Carolina QB Drake Maye in next year's draft.

The Vikings appear disinclined to force a pick on their next quarterback, though, and Kirk Cousins' presence on their roster gives them a bit of time. Cousins is scheduled to be a free agent in March after talks on a new contract failed to produce a long-term deal, but it's not out of the question the two sides agree to a new contract before then, particularly if he follows up his Pro Bowl season with an even better performance in his second year with coach Kevin O'Connell.

If the quarterback scenario doesn't materialize for the Vikings and they decide to address another spot in the first round Thursday night, there are plenty of ways they could go. They could take a cornerback like Maryland's Deonte Banks to fit defensive coordinator Brian Flores' man coverage schemes, or an interior lineman like Pitt's Calijah Kancey or Clemson's Bryan Bresee. A wide receiver like Boston College's Zay Flowers, TCU's Quentin Johnston or USC's Jordan Addison could help the Vikings punish defenses for devoting excessive attention to Justin Jefferson.

Even an edge rusher like Georgia's Nolan Smith or Clemson's Myles Murphy could make sense, given the uncertain future at a position where Danielle Hunter is scheduled to be a free agent after next season, Marcus Davenport is on a one-year deal and Za'Darius Smith could be traded before the season.

But whatever incremental improvements the Vikings could make to their 2023 roster this weekend, their future ambitions seem grander than that.

Wilf praised the changes Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell made in their first year together, and the Vikings' success bought the pair a sizable amount of goodwill heading into 2023. But neither the GM nor the coach seems naive about the challenges the 13-win season might have masked: an aging defense that ranked near the bottom of the league the past three seasons, an uncertain future at quarterback and another year of difficult cap circumstances brought on by years of trying to squeeze one more season out of expensive veterans.

No gauzy sentiment about the Vikings' 2022 season kept the team from calculated decisions about franchise fixtures like Eric Kendricks and Adam Thielen this offseason, and the changes might not be done, particularly if the Vikings find trade partners for Smith or running back Dalvin Cook this weekend.

The best way for Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell to turn their first year together into a lengthy tenure in Minnesota is to produce the kinds of deep playoff runs the franchise has lacked. They work for owners who've enjoyed a long stretch of relevance, and are tasked with finding the kinds of franchise-changing players that aren't always available late in the first round.

If the Vikings make a bold move on Thursday night — either by trading up or trading back in hopes of acquiring future valuable assets — it could be an attempt to hack a system that doesn't reward teams who don't go through lean years.

"To me, it's not necessarily about the number of picks. It's about the impact of the picks that you have," Adofo-Mensah said on April 13. "So if you can find an impact player with your first pick or whatever, you don't have to trade back to get two players who might not have that same impact. So we're going to do it the way we've always done it: trying to find impactful players that fit our culture and the way we're trying to go about business."