Analysis: Vikings have faced QB choices for nearly a decade. The next one could shape their 2025 season.

On Aug. 30, 2016, early in the Vikings' final practice of the preseason, Teddy Bridgewater dropped back to pass on the east field at Winter Park, faking a handoff to Adrian Peterson as Rhett Ellison moved in front of him to block. As Bridgewater planted his left foot in the grass, his knee collapsed, sending the Vikings into a quarterbacking quandary that had ramifications for nearly a decade.

Bridgewater was in the third year of his rookie contract, which still afforded the Vikings up to three seasons of team control before they’d have to make a decision on the young quarterback’s future. Five days after Bridgewater dislocated his knee and tore several ligaments, the Vikings traded a first- and fourth-round pick to the Eagles for Sam Bradford, absorbing $25 million of salary over two years for a quarterback they believed could keep them in Super Bowl contention. The Vikings fell to 8-8 after a 5-0 start that year, and a degenerative knee limited Bradford to six quarters the next season. But the Vikings went 13-3 with Case Keenum leading them to the NFC Championship game, and entered the 2018 offseason again believing they were a QB upgrade away from the Super Bowl.

They’re 1-3 in the playoffs since then, despite having paid Kirk Cousins $185 million in six seasons and trying to circumnavigate salary cap issues in the final years of Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer’s tenures, when the two tried to save their jobs by keeping high-priced veterans across the roster while paying Cousins on short-term, market-rate deals. Back-to-back losing seasons ushered Kwesi Adofo-Mensah into the general manager’s seat with twin mandates: refresh the roster and devise a plan for the Vikings to escape their cap straits.

The key to that plan always involved the Vikings' first young starting quarterback in the decade since Bridgewater. Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell talked about it early. The prospect of cost control at QB, and free cap space to build the rest of the roster, piqued the Wilfs' interests. When the Vikings talked with Cousins about new deals in 2022, 2023 and 2024, their interest in a long-term commitment was tempered by their hopes of landing a young passer.

Now, as they head into 2025 free agency, they’ve got roughly $60 million in cap space, the sixth-most of any team in the NFL this year. They’ll have the freedom to be more aggressive on the open market than perhaps any point since they signed Cousins, as they try to build on a team that became one of the NFL’s big surprises with a 14-win season last year.

And once again, it’ll hinge on the quarterback.

The Vikings likely will head into J.J. McCarthy’s second season with an experienced quarterback as a hedge, after McCarthy’s torn right meniscus cost him his entire rookie season. He’s back over 200 pounds, and has been able to do on-field work since January, but since he hasn’t practiced since his injury in August, the Vikings are unlikely to leave themselves without another option in case McCarthy has a setback or struggles in camp. They’ve also been interested enough in retaining control of the QB’s timeline that this doesn’t seem like the moment to let outside factors dictate when he would start. Their insurance plans for McCarthy, though, would come with different premiums.

One possibility remains Sam Darnold, who sources said was still in contract talks with the Vikings last week even after the team decided not to place the franchise tag on him. Darnold is the top available free agent QB, but there’s some question in league circles about what his market will be. The team’s approach to Darnold could ultimately mirror the one they took with Cousins last year, when they maintained interest in retaining the quarterback on a modest deal while giving him the freedom to seek a better offer elsewhere. If Darnold leaves, Daniel Jones could be a good fit to play the role Darnold was signed to play last year: a veteran starter who could keep the Vikings competitive until McCarthy is ready.

The Vikings' remarkable history of winning with impromptu starters — Darnold was the eighth veteran QB to start a playoff game in his first year with the team — has meant they rarely reach quarterback crossroads at logical junctures. Dennis Green drafted Daunte Culpepper after two different veterans (Randall Cunningham and Jeff George) had helped the Vikings go 25-7 the previous two years; the Vikings signed Cousins after knee concerns led them to give up on two QBs (Bridgewater and Bradford) they’d acquired with first-round picks while ditching a third QB (Keenum) whose NFC Championship game run they deemed an aberration. Darnold’s surprising turn, oddly enough, fits neatly into the history of a team that’s crafted a .550 win percentage with a series of jagged lines at quarterback. So does the choice they’ll make about whether to turn things over to their promising 22-year-old or run it back with last year’s surprising reclamation project.

Their financial plan certainly suggests they’ve been waiting on McCarthy. Justin Jefferson’s cap number spikes to $38.987 million in 2026, while four other players (Jonathan Greenard, Brian O’Neill, Christian Darrisaw and T.J. Hockenson) have cap numbers over $20 million that year. While the escalating salary cap, which could be over $290 million next year, should still give the Vikings plenty of room to operate, they’ve got $188 million tied up in only 26 players in 2026.

They’d benefit from draft picks supplying capable cheap labor, but they’ll have only four this year. While there’s room to make it work with a veteran QB, their approach seems fit for McCarthy to emerge and the team to spend on the roster around him.

Four of the last eight NFC champions were teams with QBs on rookie contracts; the Chiefs and Bengals reached Super Bowls before Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow signed their lucrative extensions. Maximizing their time with a cost-effective QB seems like a shrewd Plan A for the Vikings, who have major needs at expensive positions like cornerback and offensive line. They might decide to do just that, with a reasonable insurance policy, for 2025.

As usual, though, their quarterback situation makes for riveting theater because it’s rarely simple. The coming week could deliver one of the major plot points for the story of their 2025 season.

This story is an excerpt from the Access Vikings newsletter, which was originally emailed to subscribers on Friday. You can sign up for the free newsletter here.