Souhan: Vikings’ path to Super Bowl is clear because NFC playoff field is flawed

If the Vikings beat the Rams on Monday night, they will earn their first playoff victory in five years.

If the Vikings lose, they will experience one of the worst forms of sporting regret — knowing they had the makings of a championship team and failing to pull themselves to the second rung of the playoff ladder.

For all of the complaining fans do about the franchise’s tortured history, few Vikings teams could have made a strong case that they deserved to win a Super Bowl.

The Vikings should have won Super Bowl IV against the Chiefs. Their other Super Bowl losses came against great teams — the Dolphins, Steelers and Raiders.

The 1998 team that was talented enough to win it all was so devastated by injury after the NFC title game that, had the Vikings advanced, they would not have been able to beat Denver.

The 2000 team wasn’t that good.

The 2009 edition was good enough to win it all and I believe would have beaten the Colts in the Super Bowl had there not been a 12th man in the huddle, or a Brett Favre interception.

The 2017 team relied heavily on Case Keenum, Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray and did not have a primary ball carrier who averaged 4 yards a carry. It was surprising to see the top-ranked defense fold in the NFC title game, but that offense was not going to win a Super Bowl.

Which brings us to the 2024-25 NFL playoff field.

This group is balanced but flawed.

The Lions earned the top seed primarily because the Vikings didn’t take advantage of receivers running open all over the field. Forget the national narrative that Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn performed magic. With decent quarterback play, the Vikings would have scored more than 30 points.

That Lions defense will not hold up against a quality offensive performance.

The No. 2 seed Eagles have a running quarterback who just came out of the concussion protocol and who not long ago was dealing with complaints from No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown that the passing offense was weak. Guess what? Brown was right.

The brilliant play of running back Saquon Barkley and Vic Fangio’s exceptional work with the defense has obscured problems in the Eagles’ passing game.

The No. 3 seed Buccaneers finished 18th in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed. Their offense was stunning. They also played in a bad division, are just 6-5 since Oct. 21 and haven’t beaten a good team since their victory over Philadelphia in Tampa on Sept. 29.

The fourth-seeded Rams would be a tough matchup for the Vikings, if football is the only consideration.

Football, this week, is not the only consideration.

The NFL made the right decision to move the Vikings-Rams game to Arizona. That decision will negatively affect the Rams’ efforts to win.

Instead of a home game amid the comfort of routine, they will travel to Arizona and probably see far more Vikings fans than they would like, while Rams employees fret about the state of their city.

In terms of football, the Rams finished the season 10-7, played in a weaker division and have one win over a playoff team — 44-42 over Buffalo on Dec. 8 — since beating the Vikings on Oct. 24.

The No. 6 seed Commanders are impressive and promising, largely because of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. But how often does a rookie quarterback lead a playoff run? Last year, C.J. Stroud was the league’s best rookie quarterback, and he led Houston to a first-round victory over Cleveland but lost in the division round to Baltimore, 34-10.

The No. 7 seed Packers lost top-speed receiver Christian Watson to a knee injury last week, and starting quarterback Jordan Love is dealing with an injured elbow. The Packers have lost two in a row and three of their past five.

Even after the loss in Detroit, the Vikings have a reasonable path to the Super Bowl.

This would be a good month for the Vikings to have a good month, to stave off typical Vikings regrets.