There are all manners of explaining how the Vikings lived a charmed existence in 2022, but this one jumped out after looking at all their recent seasons stacked on top of each other:
For the Vikings, building on success has been nearly impossible
In their last five follow-up seasons after making the playoffs, the Vikings have fallen short of a repeat postseason trip. Can they avoid a similar fate in 2023?
August 21, 2023 at 5:02PM
In 2021, the Vikings scored 425 points and allowed 426. They went 8-9, after which Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman were fired.
In 2022, the Vikings scored 424 points and allowed 427. They went 13-4, after which Kevin O'Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah were lauded.
The Vikings succeeded last year largely because of a combination of execution and fortune in clutch situations, going 11-0 in regular-season games decided by one score or less.
Even the most optimistic Vikings fan (or coach) has to concede that won't be replicated again this year. leading to this early narrative for 2023: While they could still repeat as NFC North champs in a weak division, approaching 13 wins again is extremely unlikely.
Their depth seems precarious in several spots, including on the offensive line — a fact on display in a preseason loss to the Titans, which Patrick Reusse and I talked about on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast.
Some level of regression seems inevitable for this year's Vikings. The question is just to what degree. If recent history — and the nature of regression itself — is any indication, 2023 will be a struggle.
The last five times prior to 2022 that the Vikings made the playoffs, they failed to do so the following season. We can use a brief history lesson to understand how 2023 could play out:
*2009 to 2010: After going 12-4 and making it within one ill-fated play of the Super Bowl, the Vikings ran it back with an aging Brett Favre in 2010. The magic disappeared, the wins were cut in half, the head coach (Brad Childress) lost his job and a rebuild began.
*2012 to 2013: The Vikings won a surprising 10 games in 2012 thanks to a generational season from Adrian Peterson. Sustaining that level in 2013 proved difficult. The wins again were cut in half again, and the head coach (Leslie Frazier) again lost his job.
*2015 to 2016: The Vikings went 11-5 behind a stout defense in 2015. After trading for Sam Bradford just before the 2016 season after Teddy Bridgewater's catastrophic injury, they started 5-0 before a decimated offensive line and a lot of close losses sunk them in an 8-8 finish.
*2017 to 2018: After a charmed 13-3 season and a career year from backup QB Case Keenum in 2017, the Vikings went all-in with Kirk Cousins. A stylistic clash on offense and just enough defensive regression led instead to an eight-win season.
*2019 to 2020: The Vikings went 10-6 and scored a playoff upset win using perhaps the safest offense they have run with Cousins. But major defensive slippage the next year doomed them to a seven-win season.
This year feels most like the bridge from 2017 to 2018, with the Vikings trying to sustain success after a charmed year. They did manage to at least post a winning record (8-7-1) in 2018, which might be all it takes to with the North in 2023.
Here are four more things to know today:
*The last time, by the way, the Vikings won at least 11 games in back-to-back seasons: 1975 and 1976, the latter of which was their most recent Super Bowl appearance.
*Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez in four August starts: 25 innings pitched, 1 run allowed, 4-0 record. That's, um, not bad.
*Steve Kerr lauded Wolves guard Anthony Edwards after his 34-point performance in a Sunday Team USA win over Germany. "He's unquestionably the guy," Kerr said of Edwards.
*Jeff Day is expected to join me on Tuesday's podcast to talk about the Gophers volleyball team and his excellent profile of head coach Keegan Cook.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
