Analysis: Is Vikings QB Sam Darnold really a contender for NFL MVP? Don’t laugh.

The author of this particular “Can You Freaking Believe What Sam Darnold is (Still) Doing?” article is one of 50 voters tasked with choosing the NFL’s Most Valuable Player. He wanted help processing what he’s been seeing for three months and what he actually heard coming from the giddy lungs of 67,008 Vikings fans in the closing minutes of last week’s 42-21 dismissal of Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons.

“MVP! MVP! MVP!”

MVP?

Sam Darnold?

And pigs aren’t flying? Hell’s still hot? And no one is laughing at the full-throated suggestion from Vikings Nation that Sam Darnold, until recently a failed journeyman stuck in NFL dysfunction for most of his first six seasons, is now not only 11-2 but in the MVP mix alongside the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Saquon Barkley?

Fortunately for this voter, former Vikings quarterback and current SiriusXM analyst Rich Gannon is a peer in the MVP process set up by the Associated Press. An infinitely more qualified peer when it comes to the NFL, MVPs, quarterbacks and overcoming years of dysfunctional circumstances. All he did was play 18 seasons and win MVP as a 37-year-old leading the Raiders to the Super Bowl during the 2002 season.

“Right now, if you ask me, it’s Josh Allen, and I don’t think you can overlook Saquon Barkley,” Gannon said last week. “But I think Sam Darnold’s got a shot, especially with what he’s done the last month. We’ll see, but the fact you and I are even having this discussion about Sam Darnold? In December? That’s pretty cool.”

It’s way cool for Vikings fans heading into Monday night’s game against the Bears (4-9) at U.S. Bank Stadium. Their team is riding a six-game winning streak and a four-game stretch in which Darnold threw for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while the offense averaged 369 yards and 29.5 points.

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell took some time after Friday’s practice to discuss the MVP race with the Minnesota Star Tribune. A contender for NFL Coach of the Year in large part because of how he and his staff have transformed Darnold, O’Connell led off by saying any accolades the Vikings receive hinge on everyone staying present and prepared for the Bears this week, the Seahawks in Seattle next week, the Packers at home Dec. 29 and, of course, the Lions in Detroit the first weekend of January.

O’Connell’s choice when asked for his MVP heading into Week 15 was Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

“He’s making so many things happen,” O’Connell said.

But …

So is Darnold, O’Connell said. MVP case in point: Last week’s 52-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson, which came after Darnold escaped heavy pressure from two defenders straight up the middle.

“That’s a sack, so that’s nothing I did or called,” O’Connell said. “Had he just thrown the ball away there, that would have been a positive play. But he overcomes all that adversity to throw a 52-yard touchdown to the best receiver in football. And, yeah, we won by 21 points, but it was a one-point game late in the third quarter when Sam did that.

“That’s the kind of massive play that gets shown on a loop around the league as an MVP-caliber moment.”

O’Connell traces Darnold’s current hot streak to the morning after his coldest game as a Viking. It was Nov. 11. Yes, the Vikings had won at Jacksonville. But Darnold threw three interceptions with no touchdowns and a 48.2 passer rating.

O’Connell said the key was Darnold looking inward for answers instead of outward for excuses. Since then, he has posted four consecutive passer ratings of 107 or higher, giving him a team-record 11 this season, including a team-record 157.9 to go along with a career-high five touchdowns and NFC offensive player of the week against the Falcons.

“I don’t even know what makes up a 100-plus rating,” O’Connell said. “But I can tell you that if you do it as many times as Sam’s done it, and you’re winning games and making high-, high-level quarterback plays, you deserve MVP consideration.

“If he continues the standard he set for himself these last four weeks, I think our team is in great position over the next four weeks and there is going to be a very, very strong argument for Sam as MVP.”

The Associated Press began picking MVPs in 1957, although the award was called Most Outstanding Player before 1961. Running back Jim Brown won the first two. Running backs won four of the first five, but quarterbacks have now won it 47 times, according to Pro Football Reference, 29 more than the next position group (running backs).

“If it’s not Sam who wins it, then, yes, I feel a running back can win it,” said Vikings running back Aaron Jones, referring to the Eagles' Barkley.

A quarterback has won the award 11 consecutive times since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson won it by topping 2,000 yards in 2012. Barkley went into Week 15 on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards.

If running backs feel slighted, imagine how receivers must feel. A kicker — Washington’s Mark Moseley in 1982 — has won MVP. A receiver has not.

When Jerry Rice won the position’s triple crown for receptions, yards and touchdowns in 1990, he got one MVP vote. When Sterling Sharpe did it in 1992, he got two votes. When Cooper Kupp did it in 2021, he got one vote.

A defensive player has won twice. The Vikings’ Alan Page won in 1971. The Giants’ Lawrence Taylor won 15 years later.

“I’m biased, but I think a defensive guy can still win MVP in today’s NFL,” Vikings edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel said. “But it does seem like voters look at it as just basically a quarterback award.

“I think Sam is right up there. If he keeps it up and we keep winning, it might be hard to tell him no.”

Heading into Week 15, the gambling site DraftKings had Allen listed as the MVP front-runner (-400). A $10 bet would win you $12.50. Barkley was next (+450) followed by Goff and Jackson (+1000), Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+4000) and Darnold (+5000). A $10 bet on Darnold would fetch $510.

Darnold has stonewalled every attempt the media has made this year to get him to reflect on his past or project his future beyond the one-year, $10 million deal he signed with the Vikings. He declined a one-on-one interview for this story and was typically bland in his weekly news conference.

“I’m just going to continue to stay present, locked in on the moment,” Darnold said when asked about the MVP chatter and chant at the end of the Falcons game. “But, yeah, [the chant] was a special moment.”

Gannon opened his career with what he calls six “dysfunctional” years with the Vikings. The bitter end came in 1992, when Denny Green benched him for Sean Salisbury with the Vikings at 8-3 and on their way to a one-and-done playoff performance that Gannon watched from the sideline. He bounced from Washington to Kansas City to Oakland, where he got a foothold on his career and went 33-15 from 2000 until his MVP year.

“When I look at Sam this year, the amazing thing I see is from the neck up he’s a different player,” Gannon said. “Being thrown out there in New York as the third overall pick when he wasn’t ready, that’s not an easy place to fail. I’ve seen guys never recover from failing like that.”

Before Darnold arrived in Carolina for his fourth season in 2021, then-Panthers coach Matt Rhule had Gannon talk with Darnold about his journey. Gannon told Darnold he had all the tools necessary to be great. He just needed to make better decisions.

“You think of Sam being around a long time, but the kid’s only 27,” Gannon said. “And he’s in such a great situation. Kevin O’Connell, there’s a method to his X’s and O’s madness. I think he’s terrific.

“But what he’s really done is restore Sam’s confidence. That swagger, that juice is back for Sam. The command of the huddle, the command of the system, the audibles, the checks, he’s matured mentally, emotionally in so many ways, and it’s very noticeable.”

Winning MVP or coming close could be the crowning achievement in what could become one of the most lucrative contract-year performances ever. Maybe even bigger than the one Baker Mayfield used last year to get a three-year, $100 million deal with Tampa Bay.

The Vikings are waiting until after the season to address the situation. They will have first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy coming back from injury and immediate needs elsewhere that will require significant cap room to fill in free agency.

“There’s going to be a time and a place to figure out what’s best long term, to really discuss and dive into our futures,” O’Connell said. “And then, ultimately, Sam has earned the right to have a big-time say in that as well. Right now, I’m just proud of this team and excited about where it’s going this season.”

Darnold’s current contract came with an $8.75 million guarantee. That’s $176.25 million less than Jackson’s guaranteed money, $161.85 million less than Goff’s and $141.25 million less than Allen’s.

And, no, it won’t be laughable come Monday night and Darnold is playing well and the Vikings are winning and fans start showering Darnold with those once-unthinkable three letters.

“MVP! MVP! MVP!”

“I’m so happy for him,” Gannon said. “I mean how can you not be happy for a guy who’s been to hell and back and is now in the conversation for MVP?”

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